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Two-ballot versus plurality rule: an empirical investigation on the number of candidates

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Ricardo A. Madeira

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

  • Mauro Rodrigues

    (Universidade de São Paulo)

Abstract

Duverger claimed more than 50 years ago that the number of candidates in elections should be a function of electoral rules. Both his “law” and “hypothesis” suggest the number of candidates vying for seats in elections to be tightly linked to characteristics of the electoral process such as its degree of proportionality and the presence of runoffs. Here we test the validity of Duverger’s claim using data from municipal elections in Brazil. Our study differs from others in the field in two important dimensions. First, by using municipal data we avoid the usual problems that plague statistical analysis using cross-country data. Secondly, we have a truly exogenous source of variation due to a change in electoral legislation introduced by the constitutional reform of 1988: simple plurality remained the rule only in municipalities with less than 200,000 voters, and a second-ballot became mandatory for the others above that threshold. This allows for a neat identification strategy using panel data. Our main finding is that elections with runoffs lure greater numbers of candidates in municipalities with sufficiently high levels of heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Ricardo A. Madeira & Mauro Rodrigues, 2011. "Two-ballot versus plurality rule: an empirical investigation on the number of candidates," Working Papers 0112, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fup:wpaper:0112
    Note: Creation Date corresponds to the year in which the paper was published on the Department of Economics website. The paper may have been written a small number of months before its publication date.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riker, William H., 1982. "The Two-party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 753-766, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Torres, Javier & Díaz, Guillermo, 2019. "Effects of runoff voting rules on number of parties and candidates' political experience: Evidence from a law change in Peru," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 97-107.
    2. Shin, Euncheol, 2019. "A model of pre-electoral coalition formation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 463-485.
    3. Laurent Bouton, 2013. "A Theory of Strategic Voting in Runoff Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1248-1288, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duverger's law; runoff; heterogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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