IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/tmddps/83.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change

Author

Listed:
  • Harris, Rebecca Lee
  • Robinson, Sherman

Abstract

Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these losses

Suggested Citation

  • Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change," TMD discussion papers 83, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:83
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155765
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2000. "North American Farm Programs and the WTO," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 768-774.
    2. Adelman, Irma & Berck, Peter, 1990. "Food security policy in a stochastic world," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 25-55, November.
    3. Harris, Rebecca Lee, 2001. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of Mexico's agricultural policy reforms," TMD discussion papers 65, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Arndt, Channing & Tarp, Finn, 2000. "Agricultural Technology, Risk, and Gender: A CGE Analysis of Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1307-1326, July.
    5. Edgardo Moscardi & Alain de Janvry, 1977. "Attitudes Toward Risk Among Peasants: An Econometric Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(4), pages 710-716.
    6. Andrés Casco & José Romero, 1997. "Propuesta de gasto público para el campo," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 12(1), pages 67-90.
    7. André Sapir & Jaime de Melo, 1991. "Trade theory and economic reform: North, South and East," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8084, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Israel Finkelshtain & James A. Chalfant, 1991. "Marketed Surplus under Risk: Do Peasants Agree with Sandmo?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 557-567.
    9. Harris, Rebecca Lee & Löfgren, Hans & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory, Richard Paul, 2024. "Climatic oscillations and sovereign debt crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feinerman, Eli & Finkelshtain, Israel, 1996. "Introducing socioeconomic characteristics into production analysis under risk," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 149-161, February.
    2. Hurley, Terrance M., "undated". "A review of agricultural production risk in the developing world," Working Papers 188476, HarvestChoice.
    3. Channing Arndt & Sherman Robinson & Finn Tarp, 2006. "Trade Reform and Gender in Mozambique," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 32, pages 73-89.
    4. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "General equilibrium measures of agricultural policy bias in fifteen developing countries," TMD discussion papers 105, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Sarris, Alexander, 2002. "The demand for commodity insurance by developing country agricultural producers - theory and an application to cocoa in Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2887, The World Bank.
    6. Arndt, Channing, 2002. "HIV/AIDS, human capital, and economic prospects for Mozambique," TMD discussion papers 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Gender Implications of Biofuels Expansion in Africa: The Case of Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1649-1662, September.
    8. Barrett, Christopher B., 1999. "The effects of real exchange rate depreciation on stochastic producer prices in low-income agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 215-230, May.
    9. Go, Delfin S. & Kearney, Marna & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2004. "An Analysis of South Africa's Value Added Tax," Conference papers 331274, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Z. Bar‐Shira & R.E. Just & D. Zilberman, 1997. "Estimation of farmers' risk attitude: an econometric approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2-3), pages 211-222, December.
    11. Mariapia MENDOLA, 2005. "Farm households production theories: a review of institutional and behavioural responses," Departmental Working Papers 2005-01, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    12. Fafchamps, Marcel & De Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 1995. "Transaction Costs, Market Failures, Competitiveness and the State," 1994 Conference, August 22-29, 1994, Harare, Zimbabwe 183396, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Bai, Yunli & Zeng, Xuanye & Zhang, Linxiu & Song, Yiching & Zeng, Xuanye, 2021. "Domestic decision-making, crop diversity, and household dietary diversity: Evidence from five developing countries in Asia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315393, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Ritter, Raymond, 2003. "Sudden Stops in Capital Inflows and the Design of Exchange Rate Regimes," Discussion Paper Series 26317, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    15. Blake, Adam & Gomez-Plana, Antonio Gomez & Latorre Munoz, María C., 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of foreign direct investment in the Spanish economy," Conference papers 331357, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Doug & Naknoi, Kanda, 2005. "On the Benefits of Exchange Rate Flexibility under Endogenous Tradedness of Goods," Conference papers 331319, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Yusuf, Arief Anshory, 2006. "On the re-assessment of inequality in Indonesia: household survey or national account?," MPRA Paper 1728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Diao, Xinshen & Hazell, Peter B. R. & Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2006. "The role of agriculture in development: implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," DSGD discussion papers 29, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Vercammen, James, 2003. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model Of Direct Subsidy Payments And Agricultural Investment," Working Papers 15847, University of British Columbia, Food and Resource Economics.
    20. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:83. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.