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Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on U.S. agriculture?

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  • Roe, Terry
  • Somwaru, Agapi
  • Diao, Xinshen

Abstract

The question whether production flexibility payments to farmers are likely to be minimally trade distorting is considered in an inter-temporal and economy wide context. Our contribution lies in showing the circumstances, over time, under which a minimally trade distorting result is likely to obtain. If agricultural capital markets are complete, we find that payments have long run effects on land values and land rental rates, but they have no effect on production. If capital markets are not complete, we find production effects, but they are small (0.2 percent) in the short run and disappear in the long-run. The only permanent effects are on land rental rates and land values that increase by about 10 percent in the short run tapering off to slightly above 8 percent in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Roe, Terry & Somwaru, Agapi & Diao, Xinshen, 2002. "Do direct payments have intertemporal effects on U.S. agriculture?," TMD discussion papers 104, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1985. "Information and Economic Analysis: A Perspective," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380a), pages 21-41, Supplemen.
    2. Hirshleifer, David, 1988. "Risk, Futures Pricing, and the Organization of Production in Commodity Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1206-1220, December.
    3. Antonovitz, Frances & Roe, Terry, 1986. "A Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the Value of Information in Risky Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 105-114, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2009. "How Coupled Are Decoupled Farm Payments? A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
    2. Arathi Bhaskar & John C. Beghin, 2010. "Decoupled Farm Payments and the Role of Base Acreage and Yield Updating Under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 849-858.
    3. Goodwin, Barry K. & Mishra, Ashok K., 2003. "Acreage Effects Of Decoupled Programs At The Extensive Margin," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22254, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Key, Nigel D. & Roberts, Robert J., 2008. "Do Decoupled Payments Stimulate Production? Estimating the Effect on Program Crop Acreage Using Matching," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6072, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Ehmke, Mariah D. & Nagler, Amy M. & Menkhaus, Dale J. & Bastian, Christopher T. & Young, C. Edwin, 2010. "Is Agricultural Policy Decoupling against Human Nature? Experimental Evidence of Fairness Expectations’ Contributions to Payment Incidence," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 61645, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Girante, Maria Joana & Goodwin, Barry K. & Featherstone, Allen M., 2008. "Farmers' Crop Acreage Decisions in the Presence of Credit Constraints: Do Decoupled Payments Matter?," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6335, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Roe, Terry L., 2003. "Markets, Trade And The Role Of Institutions In African Development," Conference Papers 28069, University of the Free State, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    8. Bhaskar, Arathi & Beghin, John C., 2008. "Decoupled farm payments and the Role of Base Updating under uncertainty," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6339, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. O'Donoghue, Erik J. & Whitaker, James B., 2006. "How distorting are direct payments?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21247, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. El-Osta, Hisham S., 2011. "The Impact of Human Capital on Farm Operator Household Income," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 40(1), April.
    11. Ahearn, Mary Clare & Collender, Robert N. & Diao, Xinshen & Harrington, David H. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Korb, Penelope J. & Makki, Shiva S. & Morehart, Mitchell J. & Roberts, Michael J. & Roe, Terry L. , 2004. "Decoupled Payments In A Changing Policy Setting," Agricultural Economics Reports 33981, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Li, NaiChia & Roe, Terry L., 2006. "Validating Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Forecasts," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21325, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Zbranek, Peter & Fandel, Peter, 2015. "Development of productivity and its components in Slovak agriculture before and after EU accession: Analysis of the impact of CAP introduction on the performance indicators of Slovak crop and livestoc," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207353, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    14. Bakhshi, Samira & Kerr, William A., 2009. "Is There Supply Distortion In The Green Box? An Acreage Response Approach," Working Papers 51093, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.

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