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The political economy of Zambia’s recovery: Structural change without transformation?:

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  • Resnick, Danielle
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

Using the case of Zambia, this paper examines whether structural change translates into reduced poverty and improved social welfare through an empirical and systematic analysis of the country’s growth trajectory during 1991–2010. We find that growth after 2002 was accompanied by positive structural change, but most new jobs were in the low-wage, insecure informal sector in urban areas. Due to the demands of an expanding middle class, construction and high-value services also generated additional jobs, but the share of employment growth from these sectors was small and skewed more toward higher-skilled Zambians. Consequently, for a majority of the population, large-scale social transformation did not follow from structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2014. "The political economy of Zambia’s recovery: Structural change without transformation?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1320, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1320
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    File URL: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp01320.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. World Bank, 2007. "Zambia : Poverty and Vulnerabiltiy Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7863, The World Bank.
    2. Nicole M. Mason & Robert J. Myers, 2013. "The effects of the Food Reserve Agency on maize market prices in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(2), pages 203-216, March.
    3. Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, T.S. & Chapoto, Antony & Myers, Robert J., 2010. "A Test of the New Variant Famine Hypothesis: Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 356-368, March.
    4. Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James & Benin, Samuel & Fan, Shenggen, 2012. "Strategies and priorities for African agriculture: Economywide perspectives from country studies," Issue briefs 73, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, T.S. & Chapoto, Antony & Donovan, Cynthia, 2011. "Putting the 2007/2008 global food crisis in longer-term perspective: Trends in staple food affordability in urban Zambia and Kenya," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 350-367, June.
    6. Mason, Nicole M. & Jayne, Thomas S. & Walle, Nicolas van de, 2013. "Fertilizer Subsidies and Voting Patterns: Political Economy Dimensions of Input Subsidy Programs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149580, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. James Thurlow & Peter Wobst, 2006. "Not All Growth is Equally Good for the Poor: The Case of Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(4), pages 603-625, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kristi Mahrt & Gibson Masumbu, 2015. "Estimating multidimensional poverty in Zambia," WIDER Working Paper Series 137, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Dorosh, Paul A. & Thurlow, James, 2014. "Beyond agriculture versus nonagriculture: Decomposing sectoral growth–poverty linkages in five African countries:," IFPRI discussion papers 1391, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic development; employment; Poverty; Social change; Social welfare; social inequality; populism;

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