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The political economy of Zambia’s recovery: Structural change without transformation?:

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  • Resnick, Danielle
  • Thurlow, James

Abstract

Using the case of Zambia, this paper examines whether structural change translates into reduced poverty and improved social welfare through an empirical and systematic analysis of the country’s growth trajectory during 1991–2010. We find that growth after 2002 was accompanied by positive structural change, but most new jobs were in the low-wage, insecure informal sector in urban areas. Due to the demands of an expanding middle class, construction and high-value services also generated additional jobs, but the share of employment growth from these sectors was small and skewed more toward higher-skilled Zambians. Consequently, for a majority of the population, large-scale social transformation did not follow from structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Resnick, Danielle & Thurlow, James, 2014. "The political economy of Zambia’s recovery: Structural change without transformation?:," IFPRI discussion papers 1320, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1320
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaaitzen de Vries & Marcel Timmer & Klaas de Vries, 2015. "Structural Transformation in Africa: Static Gains, Dynamic Losses," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 674-688, June.
    2. Kelvin Mulungu & John N. Ng’ombe, 2017. "Sources of Economic Growth in Zambia, 1970–2013: A Growth Accounting Approach," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Kristi Mahrt & Gibson Masumbu, 2015. "Estimating multidimensional poverty in Zambia," WIDER Working Paper Series 137, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Dorosh, Paul A. & Thurlow, James, 2014. "Beyond agriculture versus nonagriculture: Decomposing sectoral growth–poverty linkages in five African countries:," IFPRI discussion papers 1391, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Kristi Mahrt & Gibson Masumbu, 2015. "Estimating multidimensional poverty in Zambia," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-137, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Mulanda, Stephen Mulanda & Punt, Cecilia, 2021. "Characteristics of Zambia's agricultural sector and the role for agricultural policy: Insights from CGE modelling," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 300-312.

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    Keywords

    Economic development; employment; Poverty; Social change; Social welfare; social inequality; populism;
    All these keywords.

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