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Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change: Estimated Growth and Poverty Impacts for Zambia

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  • James Thurlow
  • Tingju Zhu
  • Xinshen Diao

Abstract

Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below the poverty line. Socio-economic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Three climate change scenarios are simulated based on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. We conclude that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades.
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Suggested Citation

  • James Thurlow & Tingju Zhu & Xinshen Diao, 2012. "Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change: Estimated Growth and Poverty Impacts for Zambia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 394-411, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:394-411
    DOI: j.1467-9361.2012.00670.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00670.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigues, Joao & Thurlow, James & Landman, Willem & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju, 2016. "The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1546, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "Economic Development under Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 369-377, August.
    3. Mulenga, Brian P. & Wineman, Ayala, 2014. "Climate Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia," Food Security Collaborative Policy Briefs 196827, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    4. Andam, Kwaw S. & Arndt, Channing & Hartley, Faaiqa, 2017. "Eggs before chickens? Assessing Africa’s livestock revolution with an example from Ghana:," IFPRI discussion papers 1687, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Zouabi, Oussama & Kahia, Montassar, 2014. "The direct effect of climate change on the cereal production in Tunisia: A micro-spatial analysis," MPRA Paper 64441, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alemu Mekonnen, 2014. "Economic Costs of Climate Change and Climate Finance with a Focus on Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 50-82.
    7. repec:eee:ecolec:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:190-201 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dudu, Hasan & Cakmak, Erol H., 2014. "An integrated analysis of economywide effects of climate change," WIDER Working Paper Series 106, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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