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Can LLMs Credibly Transform the Creation of Panel Data from Diverse Historical Tables

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Abstract

Multimodal LLMs offer a watershed change for the digitization of historical tables, enabling low-cost processing centered on domain expertise rather than technical skills. We rigorously validate an LLM-based pipeline on a new panel of historical county-level vehicle registrations. This pipeline is estimated to be 100 times less expensive than outsourcing options, reduces critical parsing errors from 40% to 0.3%, and matches human-validated gold standard data with an R2 of 98.6%. Analyses of growth and persistence in vehicle adoption are statistically indistinguishable whether using LLM or gold standard data. LLM-based digitization unlocks complex historical tables, enabling new economic analyses and broader researcher participation.

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  • Veronica Backer-Peral & Vitaly Meursault & Christopher Severen, 2025. "Can LLMs Credibly Transform the Creation of Panel Data from Diverse Historical Tables," Working Papers 25-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:101850
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2025.28
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    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • N72 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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