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Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience

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  • Felipe Carozzi

    (London School of Economics)

  • Sandro Provenzano

    (London School of Economics)

  • Sefi Roth

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper revisits the debate around the link between population density and the severity of COVID-19 spread in the USA. We do so by conducting an empirical analysis based on graphical evidence, regression analysis and instrumental variable strategies borrowed from the agglomeration literature. Studying the period between the start of the epidemic and the beginning of the vaccination campaign at the end of 2020, we find that the cross-sectional relationship between density and COVID-19 deaths changed as the year evolved. Initially, denser counties experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Yet, by December, the relationship between COVID deaths and urban density was completely flat. This is consistent with evidence indicating density affected the timing of the outbreak—with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak—yet had no influence on time-adjusted COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook, the US Census and other sources, we investigate potential mechanisms behind these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Carozzi & Sandro Provenzano & Sefi Roth, 2024. "Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(1), pages 163-194, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:72:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-022-01193-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-022-01193-z
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    2. Brian H. S. Kim & Martin Andersson & Janet Kohlhase, 2024. "Reflecting on a dynamic biennium: The Annals of Regional Science 2022–2023," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(3), pages 683-690, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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