Are credit default swaps associated with higher corporate defaults?
Are companies with traded credit default swap (CDS) positions on their debt more likely to default? Using a proportional hazard model of bankruptcy and Merton’s contingent claims approach, we estimate the probability of default for U.S. nonfinancial firms. Our analysis does not generally find a persistent link between CDS and default over the entire period 2001-08, but does reveal a higher probability of default for firms with CDS over the last few years of that period. Further, we find that firms trading in the CDS market exhibited a higher Moody’s KMV expected default frequency during 2004-08. These findings are consistent with those of Henry Hu and Bernard Black, who argue that agency conflicts between hedged creditors and debtors would increase the likelihood of corporate default. In addition, our paper highlights other explanations for the higher defaults of CDS firms. Consistent with fire-sale spiral theories, we find a positive link between institutional ownership exposure and corporate distress, with CDS firms facing stronger selling pressures during the recent financial turmoil.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.newyorkfed.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/staff_rp/ Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2001.
"Are bank shareholders enemies of regulators or a potential source of market discipline?,"
138, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Park, Sangkyun & Peristiani, Stavros, 2007. "Are bank shareholders enemies of regulators or a potential source of market discipline?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2493-2515, August.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007.
"Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market liquidity and funding liquidity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24478, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Lasse Heje Pederson & Markus K Brunnermeier, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," FMG Discussion Papers dp580, Financial Markets Group.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joshua D. Coval & Erik Stafford, 2005.
"Asset Fire Sales (and Purchases) in Equity Markets,"
NBER Working Papers
11357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
- Hamid Mehran & Stavros Peristiani, 2010.
"Financial Visibility and the Decision to Go Private,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 519-547, February.
- Hamid Mehran & Stavros Peristiani, 2009. "Financial visibility and the decision to go private," Staff Reports 376, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Lucy F. Ackert & George Athanassakos, 2003. "A Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Analysts' Forecast Bias, Analyst Following, and Institutional Ownership," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30, pages 1017-1042.
- Harald HAU & Sandy LAI, .
"The Role of Equity Funds in the Financial Crisis Propagation,"
Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series
11-35, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Hau, Harald & Lai, Sandy, 2012. "The Role of Equity Funds in the Financial Crisis Propagation," CEPR Discussion Papers 8819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008.
"In Search of Distress Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hilscher, Jens & Szilagyi, Jan, 2005. "In search of distress risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,27, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Szilagyi, Jan & Hilscher, Jens & Campbell, John, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Scholarly Articles 3199070, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2006. "In Search of Distress Risk," NBER Working Papers 12362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2005. "In Searach of Distress Risk," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2081, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, .
"Institutional Investors and Equity Prices,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
20-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Gilson, Stuart C. & John, Kose & Lang, Larry H. P., 1990. "Troubled debt restructurings*1: An empirical study of private reorganization of firms in default," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 315-353, October.
- Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2013.
"Investors' Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1607-1648.
- Cella, Cristina & Ellul, Andrew & Giannetti, Mariassunta, 2010. "Investors' horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 8083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, . "Investors’ Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," FMG Discussion Papers dp717, Financial Markets Group.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Amy Farber)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.