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Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?

Author

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  • Juan Carlos Conesa
  • Timothy J. Kehoe

Abstract

In January 1995, U.S. President Bill Clinton organized a bailout for Mexico that imposed penalty interest rates and induced the Mexican government to reduce its debt, ending the debt crisis. Can the Troika (European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund) organize similar bailouts for the troubled countries in the Eurozone? Our analysis suggests that debt levels are so high that bailouts with penalty interest rates could induce the Eurozone governments to default rather than reduce their debt. A resumption of economic growth is one of the few ways that the Eurozone crises can end.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2014. "Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?," Staff Report 497, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:497
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    File URL: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr497.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    2. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Alonso-Ortiz & Esteban Colla & José-María Da-Rocha, 2017. "The productivity cost of sovereign default: evidence from the European debt crisis," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 611-633, December.
    2. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon & Rafael Santos, 2017. "Bargained haircuts and debt policy implications," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 635-656, December.
    3. Pásztor, Szabolcs, 2017. "Mozaikok Európa újraegyesüléséhez - az amerikai külpolitika és az európai multinacionális vállalatok szerepe. Berend T. Iván: The History of European Integration - A new perspective. Routledge, New Yo," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 208-212.
    4. Gonzalo Fernandez-de-Cordoba & Pau Pujolas & Jose Torres, 2017. "Fiscal Discipline and Defaults," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 1-13, March.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Erce, Aitor & Uy, Timothy, 2018. "Debt Sustainability and the Terms of Official Support," CEPR Discussion Papers 13292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    7. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2020. "Academic Scholarship in Light of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Textual Analysis of NBER Working Papers," MPRA Paper 98785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 707-740, December.
    9. Vitor Gaspar, 2014. "The Making of a Continental Financial System; Lessons for Europe from Early American History," IMF Working Papers 14/183, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Roch, Francisco & Uhlig, Harald, 2018. "The dynamics of sovereign debt crises and bailouts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Cassola, Nuno & Jorge, José, 2016. "The ECB's OMTs: A tale of governments, investors, and the central bank," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 94-116.
    12. Gabriel Desgranges & Celine Rochon, 2014. "Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default," IMF Working Papers 14/168, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Maeng, Seung Hyun, 2020. "Debt Crises, Fast and Slow," CEPR Discussion Papers 14868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2016. "Bailouts, Time Inconsistency, and Optimal Regulation: A Macroeconomic View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2458-2493, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; Bailout; Penalty interest rate; Collateral;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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