Seasonal production smoothing
Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for, and finds evidence of, seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and 8 out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production-smoothing.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Publication status:||Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1999, 81(5), pp. 21-40|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Fair, Ray C., 1989.
"The production-smoothing model is alive and well,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
- Ray C. Fair, 1989. "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," NBER Working Papers 2877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair, 1989. "The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 896, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
- Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Seasonality, Cost Shocks and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1987. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," NBER Working Papers 2360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Miron & Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated". "Seasonality, Cost Shocks and the Production Smoothing Model of Inventories," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Allen, Donald S., 1997. "A multi-sector inventory model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 55-87, January.
- Jeffrey A. Miron, 1996. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133237, July.
- Jeffrey A. Miron, 1990. "The Economics of Seasonal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 3522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.
- Dimelis, Sophia P. & Ghali, Moheb A., 1994. "Classical and variance bounds tests of the production smoothing hypothesis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-3), pages 15-22, June.
- West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
- Kenneth D. West, 1985. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quardractic Inventory Model," NBER Working Papers 1581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-581, June.
- Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-346, August.
- Ramey, Valerie A, 1991. "Nonconvex Costs and the Behavior of Inventories," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 306-334, April.
- Lai, Kon S, 1991. "Aggregation and Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-403, May.
- Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-469, June.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
- Beason, Richard, 1993. "Tests of production smoothing in selected Japanese industries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 381-394, June. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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