Seasonal production smoothing
Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for, and finds evidence of, seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and 8 out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production-smoothing.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1999, 81(5), pp. 21-40|
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Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
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- Allen, Donald S., 1997. "A multi-sector inventory model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 55-87, January.
- Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1995. "A generalized variance bounds test with an application to the Holt et al. inventory model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 59-89.
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