Seasonal production smoothing
Empirical tests of the production-smoothing hypothesis have yielded mixed results. In this paper, Donald Allen looks for, and finds evidence of, seasonal production smoothing in 15 out of 25 manufacturing series and 8 out of 10 retail series, using detrended seasonally unadjusted data. The equivalent test using seasonally adjusted data were negative for all 35 series. The results suggest that seasonally adjusted data obscure short-term production-smoothing.
|Date of creation:||1999|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1999, 81(5), pp. 21-40|
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- Allen, Donald S., 1997. "A multi-sector inventory model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 55-87, January.
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NBER Working Papers
2877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
01-87, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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MIT Press Books,
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- Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
- Lai, Kon S, 1991. "Aggregation and Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-403, May.
- Kenneth D. West, 1985.
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NBER Working Papers
1581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
- Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-81, June.
- Beason, Richard, 1993. "Tests of production smoothing in selected Japanese industries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 381-394, June.
- Carpenter, Robert E & Levy, Daniel, 1998. "Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 331-46, August.
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