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Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?

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  • Donald S. Allen

Abstract

Inventories are widely believed to serve as a buffer stock against unexpected fluctuations in demand, allowing firms to plan production more efficiently. If so, we would expect production to vary less than sales and inventory to move in the opposite direction to sales. However, research finds that production varies more than sales and that there is a positive correlation between changes in inventory and changes in sales. These findings imply that inventories are not being used to smooth production and do not serve as a buffer for uncertain demand. Donald S. Allen examines firm-level data and finds that firms may use inventories to smooth production, but only partially.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald S. Allen, 1997. "Do inventories moderate fluctuations in output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 39-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1997:i:jul:p:39-50
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fair, Ray C., 1989. "The production-smoothing model is alive and well," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 353-370, November.
    2. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1988. "Seasonality, Cost Shocks, and the Production Smoothing Models of Inventories," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 877-908, July.
    3. West, Kenneth D, 1986. "A Variance Bounds Test of the Linear Quadratic Inventory Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 374-401, April.
    4. Krane, Spencer D & Braun, Stephen N, 1991. "Production Smoothing Evidence from Physical-Product Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 558-581, June.
    5. Donald S. Allen, 1995. "Changes in inventory management and the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 17-26.
    6. Alan S. Blinder, 1986. "Can the Production Smoothing Model of Inventory Behavior be Saved?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 431-453.
    7. Lovell, Michael C., 1994. "Researching inventories: Why haven't we learned more?," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-3), pages 33-41, June.
    8. Ghali, Moheb A, 1987. "Seasonality, Aggregation and the Testing of the Production Smoothing Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 464-469, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boute, Robert N. & Disney, Stephen M. & Lambrecht, Marc R. & Van Houdt, Benny, 2007. "An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(1), pages 121-142, April.
    2. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    3. Li Chen & Hau L. Lee, 2012. "Bullwhip Effect Measurement and Its Implications," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 771-784, August.
    4. Yuliang Yao & Kevin Xiaoguo Zhu, 2012. "Research Note ---Do Electronic Linkages Reduce the Bullwhip Effect? An Empirical Analysis of the U.S. Manufacturing Supply Chains," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(3-part-2), pages 1042-1055, September.

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    Keywords

    Inventories; Business cycles;

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