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Managerial incentives and financial contagion

Author

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  • Sujit Chakravorti
  • Anna Ilyina
  • Subir Lall

Abstract

This paper proposes a framework to examine the comovements of asset prices with seemingly unrelated fundamentals, as an outcome of the optimal portfolio strategies of large institutional fund managers. In emerging markets, the dominant presence of dedicated fund managers whose compensation is linked to the outperformance of their portfolio relative to a benchmark index, and of global fund managers whose compensation is linked to the absolute returns of their portfolios, leads to portfolio decisions that result in systematic interactions between asset prices even in the absence of asymmetric information. The model endogenously determines the optimal amount of cash holdings or leverage, the incidence of relative value versus macro hedge fund strategies, and how prices can systematically deviate from the long-term fundamental value for long periods of time, with limits to the arbitrage of this differential. Managerial compensation contracts, while optimal at a firm level, may lead to inefficiencies at the macroeconomic level. We identify conditions when a negative shock to one emerging market affects another market negatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujit Chakravorti & Anna Ilyina & Subir Lall, 2003. "Managerial incentives and financial contagion," Working Paper Series WP-03-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-03-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    2. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    3. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, August.
    7. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bunda, Irina & Hamann, A. Javier & Lall, Subir, 2009. "Correlations in emerging market bonds: The role of local and global factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 67-96, June.
    2. Leitao, Joao & Armada, Manuel Rocha & Ferreira, Joaaquim, 2012. "Corruption and Co-Movements in European Listed Sport Companies: Did Calciocaos really matter?," MPRA Paper 42474, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Irina Bunda & A. Javier Hamann & Subir Lall, 2007. "Emerging Debt Markets: What Do Correlations and Spreads Tell Us?," Post-Print halshs-00424468, HAL.
    4. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "Exchange Rate Flexibility Across Financial Crises," Working Papers 2010-08, CEPII research center.
    5. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    6. R. G Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 11/92, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Irina Bunda & A. Javier Hamann & Subir Lall, 2005. "Comovements In Emerging Market Bond Returns: An Empirical Assessment," Post-Print halshs-00424466, HAL.
    8. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:413-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomás, 2017. "International asset allocations and capital flows: The benchmark effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 413-430.
    10. Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2010. "Contagion inside the credit default swaps market: The case of the GM and Ford crisis in 2005," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 109-134, April.
    11. Anna Ilyina, 2005. "Investment Restrictions and Contagion in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/190, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises ; Mutual funds;

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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