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Immigration and the Labor Market in the Post-Pandemic Recovery

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Abstract

Standard estimates based on the main household survey used to shed light on labor markets—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—suggest that after a significant drop during the pandemic, recent rapid growth has brought the foreign-born population back to, or above, levels predicted by the pre-pandemic trend. However, we document that the weighting factors used to make the CPS nationally representative have recently displayed some unusual movements and conclude that standard estimates of the foreign-born population may currently be too high. We also show that recent labor market indicators are inconsistent with increased foreign-born induced slack.

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  • Kristin F. Butcher & Lucas Cain & Camilo Garcia-Jimeno & Ryan Perry, 2023. "Immigration and the Labor Market in the Post-Pandemic Recovery," Working Paper Series WP 2023-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97417
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2023-39
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    1. Bruce D. Meyer & Wallace K. C. Mok & James X. Sullivan, 2015. "Household Surveys in Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 199-226, Fall.
    2. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2012. "Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 584-588, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maggie Isaacson & Cassandra Marks & Lowell R. Ricketts & Hannah Rubinton, 2024. "The Effect of COVID Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness," Working Papers 2024-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 20 Nov 2024.
    2. Maggie Isaacson & Cassandra Marks & Lowell R. Ricketts & Hannah Rubinton, 2024. "The Effect of COVID-19 Immigration Restrictions on Post-Pandemic Labor Market Tightness," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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