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Composition-Adjusted Wage Growth: A Robust Measure from Microdata

Author

Listed:
  • Bo E. Honore
  • Luojia Hu

Abstract

Wage growth is a key indicator of labor market conditions, but common measures often conflate individual wage changes with shifts in workforce composition. This paper develops a composition-adjusted measure of wage growth using nonparametric decomposition and program evaluation methods. The adjusted measure tracks unadjusted growth in stable periods but diverges during disruptions: during the Covid-19 pandemic, wage growth falls from 12% to 6% after adjustment. The method accommodates rich covariates, is robust to data quality issues such as rounding, heaping and top-coding, and enables distributional and subgroup analysis using micro data, offering more accurate views of underlying wage dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Bo E. Honore & Luojia Hu, 2025. "Composition-Adjusted Wage Growth: A Robust Measure from Microdata," Working Paper Series WP 2025-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:101717
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2025-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    2. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    3. Juan Carlos Escanciano & David Jacho‐Chávez & Arthur Lewbel, 2016. "Identification and estimation of semiparametric two‐step models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 561-589, July.
    4. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    5. Daniel Aaronson & Luojia Hu & Aastha Rajan, 2020. "How Much Did the Minimum Wage Drive Real Wage Growth During the Late 2010s?," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue 435.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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