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Fiscal rules, what does the American experience tell us?

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Abstract

We examine the effect of balanced budget rules on budget outcomes in the U.S. from the mid-1980s through the present. Rules at both the federal level and the state level are considered. Given the relatively short duration of the federal rules and corresponding lack of data points, we adopt a narrative approach. Our examination fails to uncover evidence that the statutory rules at the federal level have influenced the size of deficits. The laboratory of the states provides more fertile ground for econometric testing of the influence of balanced budget rules. We test the hypothesis that the strength of a state's balanced budget rule influences its response to unanticipated budget shocks. We conclude that rules at the state-level have had a significant influence on budget outcomes.

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  • Glenn Follette & Byron F. Lutz, 2012. "Fiscal rules, what does the American experience tell us?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-38
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    1. Reischauer, Robert D., 1990. "Taxes and Spending Under Gramm-Rudman-Hollings," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 43(3), pages 223-32, September.
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    3. Glenn Follette & Byron Lutz, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in the United States: Automatic Stabilizers, Discretionary Fiscal Policy Actions, and the Economy," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 48(1), pages 41-73, Junio.
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    6. Jeffrey Clemens & Stephen Miran, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers on Subnational Government Spending," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 46-68, May.
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    9. Bohn, Henning & Inman, Robert P., 1996. "Balanced-budget rules and public deficits: evidence from the U.S. states," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 13-76, December.
    10. Sung Deuk Hahm & Mark S. Kamlet & David C. Mowery & Tsai-Tsu Su, 1992. "The influence of the gramm-rudman-hollings act on federal budgetary outcomes, 1986-1989," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 207-234.
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    1. Luc Eyraud & Xavier Debrun & Andrew Hodge & Victor Duarte Lledo & Catherine A Pattillo, 2018. "Second-Generation Fiscal Rules; Balancing Simplicity, Flexibility, and Enforceability," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 18/04, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kamps, Christophe & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2019. "Taking stock of the functioning of the EU fiscal rules and options for reform," Occasional Paper Series 231, European Central Bank.
    3. Cezara Vinturis, 2019. "A multi-speed fiscal Europe? Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Performance in the EU Former Communist Countries," Working Papers hal-03097483, HAL.

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