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Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model

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  • Gary S. Anderson
  • Jinill Kim
  • Tack Yun

Abstract

Since Kydland and Prescott (1977) and Barro and Gordon (1983), most studies of the problem of the inflation bias associated with discretionary monetary policy have assumed a quadratic loss function. We depart from the conventional linear-quadratic approach to the problem in favor of a projection method approach. We investigate the size of the inflation bias that arises in a microfounded nonlinear environment with Calvo price setting. The inflation bias is found to lie between 1% and 6% for a reasonable range of parameter values, when the bias is defined as the steady-state deviation of the discretionary inflation rate from the optimal inflation rate under commitment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary S. Anderson & Jinill Kim & Tack Yun, 2010. "Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2010-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. King, Mervyn, 1997. "Changes in UK monetary policy: Rules and discretion in practice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 81-97, June.
    2. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2007. "Loose commitment," International Finance Discussion Papers 916, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
    4. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, pages 1661-1707.
    5. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, January.
    6. Willem Van Zandweghe & Alexander L. Wolman, 2010. "Discretionary monetary policy in the Calvo model," Research Working Paper RWP 10-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    7. Schaumburg, Ernst & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2007. "An investigation of the gains from commitment in monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 302-324, March.
    8. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2004. "Monetary Discretion, Pricing Complementarity, and Dynamic Multiple Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(4), pages 1513-1553.
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    12. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2010. "The Optimal Rate of Inflation," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 13, pages 653-722 Elsevier.
    13. Anderson, Gary S. & Kim, Jinill & Yun, Tack, 2010. "Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1572-1581, September.
    14. Ulf Söderström & Paul Söderlind & Anders Vredin, 2005. "New-Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Re-examination of the Stylized Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 521-546.
    15. Viktor Winschel & Markus Krätzig, 2008. "JBendge: An Object-Oriented System for Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-034, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    16. King, Robert G. & Wolman, Alexander L., 2004. "Monetary discretion, pricing complementarity and dynamic multiple equilibria," Working Paper Series 343, European Central Bank.
    17. Gapen Michael T. & Cosimano Thomas F., 2005. "Solving Ramsey Problems with Nonlinear Projection Methods," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-38, June.
    18. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
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    21. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leith, Campbell & Liu, Ding, 2016. "The inflation bias under Calvo and Rotemberg pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 283-297.
    2. Bilbiie, Florin O. & Fujiwara, Ippei & Ghironi, Fabio, 2014. "Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2014. "Delegating optimal monetary policy inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 63-78.
    4. Ngo, Phuong V., 2014. "Optimal discretionary monetary policy in a micro-founded model with a zero lower bound on nominal interest rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 44-65.
    5. Sunakawa, Takeki, 2015. "A quantitative analysis of optimal sustainable monetary policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-135.
    6. Anderson, Gary S. & Kim, Jinill & Yun, Tack, 2010. "Using a projection method to analyze inflation bias in a micro-founded model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1572-1581, September.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance) ; Econometric models;

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