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Financial globalization and monetary policy discipline

  • Mark M. Spiegel

The literature appears to have reached a consensus that financial globalization has had a "disciplining effect" on monetary policy, as it has reduced the returns from--and hence the temptation for--using monetary policy to stabilize output. As a result, monetary policy over recent years has placed more emphasis on stabilizing inflation, resulting in reduced inflation and greater output stability. However, this consensus has not been accompanied by convincing empirical evidence that such a relationship exists. One reason is likely to be that de facto measures of financial globalization are endogenous, and that instruments for financial globalization are elusive. In this paper, I introduce a new instrument, financial remoteness, as a plausibly exogenous instrument for financial openness. I examine the relationship between financial globalization and median inflation levels over an 11 year cross-section from 1994 through 2004, as well as a panel of 5-year median inflation levels between 1980 and 2004. The results confirm a negative relationship between median inflation and financial globalization in the base specification, but this relationship is sensitive to the inclusion of conditioning variables or country fixed effects, precluding any strong inferences.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2008-10.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2008-10
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2002. "A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 8870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sutherland, Alan, 2004. "International Monetary Policy Coordination and Financial Market Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4251, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld., 1998. "The Global Capital Market: Benefactor or Menace?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-098, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 250-257, July.
  5. Hiroshi Fujiki & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2007. "Financial Integration in East Asia," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(S1), pages 57-100, December.
  6. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2005. "Offshore Financial Centres: Parasites or Symbionts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5081, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Kose, Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2006. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," CEPR Discussion Papers 5842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad, 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IMF Working Papers 07/238, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Andrei A. Levchenko, 2005. "Financial Liberalization and Consumption Volatility in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 237-259, September.
  10. Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 1999. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2295, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
  13. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
  14. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
  17. Mark Spiegel, 2007. "Financial globalization and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov23.
  18. Rose, Andrew K., 2007. "A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 663-681, September.
  19. Marco Terrones & Eswar Prasad & M. Ayhan Kose, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2006. "Impact of globalization on monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-305.
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