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Contagion effects during the Asian financial crisis: stock price data

  • Jose Antonio R. Tan, III
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    Most governments of affected economies during the Asian financial crisis tend to gravitate towards a self-fulfilling expectations story of multiple equilibria, i.e. macroeconomic fundamentals are sound and that their economies were simply affected by the spillover effects of the Thai, Indonesian and even the Korean crises. In this paper, we examine the nature and extent of contagion during the Asian financial turmoil using evidence from movements in the national stock markets. In particular we determine the extent of stock price movements in the crisis-affected countries on those of other countries. Also, this paper highlights the difference in co-movements of stock prices before and after the crisis. This study confirms the contagion effect during the Asian financial crisis using a vector error correction model, and impulse response functions and variance decomposition of a daily VAR model.

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    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 98-06.

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    Date of creation: 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:98-06
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    1. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 96-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1993. "An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 4595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    5. Kasa, Kenneth & Huh, Chan, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 68-80, February.
    6. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
    7. Paul Cashin & Manmohan S. Kumar & C. John McDermott, 1995. "International Integration of Equity Markets and Contagion Effects," IMF Working Papers 95/110, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Rafael La Porta & Thierry A. Wizman, 1993. "What Moves the Discount on Country Equity Funds?," NBER Working Papers 4571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Paul Krugman, 1996. "Are Currency Crises Self-Fulfilling?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 345-407 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Rogers, John H., 1994. "Entry barriers and price movements between major and emerging stock markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 221-241.
    12. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of a death foretold," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 235-264, November.
    14. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
    15. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Bruce Mizrach & Anna J. Schwartz, 1995. "Real Versus Pseudo-International Systemic Risk: Some Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 5371, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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