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An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains

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Abstract

Global value chains (GVC) are a pervasive feature of modern production, but they are hard to measure. Using U.S. Census microdata, we develop novel measures of the linkages between U.S. manufacturing establishments’ imports and exports. We document three new GVC patterns. First, for every dollar of exports, imported inputs represent 13 cents in 2002 and 20 cents by 2017, substantially higher than what aggregate data suggests. Second, we find strong complementarities between input and output markets reflected in “round-trip” trade linkages where an establishment sources inputs from and exports output to the same country. Third, we find a strong positive association between regional trade agreements and GVC trade flows. The aggregate data used to build global input-output tables requires proportionality assumptions that we find mute these relationships. Finally, with a global firms model, we show that the roundtrip results are consistent with a notion of country-specific fixed costs that are at least partially common between sourcing (imports) and foreign sales (exports).

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  • Aaron Flaaen & Fariha Kamal & Eunhee Lee & Kei-Mu Yi, 2024. "An Anatomy of U.S. Establishments’ Trade Linkages in Global Value Chains," Working Papers 2419, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:99325
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2419
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    1. Deborah Winkler, William Milberg, 2009. "WP 2009-12 Errors from the “Proportionality Assumption†in the Measurement of Offshoring: Application to German Labor Demand," SCEPA working paper series. 2009-12, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. Xiang Ding & Teresa C. Fort & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2019. "Structural Change Within Versus Across Firms: Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 2019-9, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    3. Timmer, Marcel P. & Los, Bart & Stehrer, Robert & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2016. "An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown based on the WIOD 2016 Release," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-162, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    4. Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Wei Ouyang, 2021. "A Long View of Employment Growth and Firm Dynamics in the United States: Importers vs. Exporters vs. Non-Traders," Working Papers 21-38, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2025. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 208-238, January.
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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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