IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedbcq/88244.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Approach to Predicting Regional Labor Market Effects of Economic Shocks: The COVID-19 Pandemic in New England

Author

Listed:
  • Osborne Jackson

Abstract

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic led state and local governments throughout New England and much of the nation to issue ordinances restricting activity that might otherwise contribute to the spread of the disease. Individuals also freely adjusted their behavior, hoping to reduce the chances of infecting themselves or others. As a result, many employers have experienced substantial reductions in sales revenue, which were expected to generate harmful effects on the labor market. Even though the reversal of mandated policies and voluntary behavior changes are well under way, the initial effects and ongoing public health concerns may extend the time needed for labor market outcomes to improve substantially. This study uses pre-pandemic employment data by occupation and a conceptual framework focused on labor costs to identify the subpopulation most vulnerable to the economic shock and predict layoffs and unemployment in the second quarter of 2020. The analysis allows for the possibility of wage cuts mitigating job losses. Further extensions incorporate indirect effects due to reduced product demand from directly affected workers, as well as offsetting effects of a federal policy response. Predicted second-quarter layoffs and unemployment due to the pandemic vary throughout New England, and such adverse labor market effects tend to be somewhat smaller in the region than in the country as a whole. Additionally, official estimates of unemployment from available second-quarter data fall within the range of predictions, after accounting for plausible measurement error. This approach, which builds on the work of other recent analysis, should be helpful in estimating the regional labor market impact of future economic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Osborne Jackson, 2020. "An Approach to Predicting Regional Labor Market Effects of Economic Shocks: The COVID-19 Pandemic in New England," Current Policy Perspectives 88244, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:88244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2020/the-covid-19-pandemic-in-new-england.aspx
    File Function: Summary
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Workingpapers/PDF/2020/cpp20200629.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce Fallick & Daniel Villar Vallenas & William L. Wascher, 2016. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States During and After the Great Recession," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-001r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 15 May 2020.
    2. Charles S. Gascon, 2020. "COVID-19: Which Workers Face the Highest Unemployment Risk?," On the Economy 87733, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Ekaterina S. Jardim & Gary Solon & Jacob L. Vigdor, 2019. "How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? Evidence from Payroll Records in Washington State," NBER Working Papers 25470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Charles S. Gascon & Devin Werner, 2020. "COVID-19 and Unemployment Risk: State and MSA Differences," On the Economy 87751, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    6. Miguel Faria-e-Castro, 2020. "Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate," On the Economy 87740, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Michael W. L. Elsby & Gary Solon, 2019. "How Prevalent Is Downward Rigidity in Nominal Wages? International Evidence from Payroll Records and Pay Slips," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 185-201, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anne Kathrin Funk & Daniel Kaufmann, 2022. "Do Sticky Wages Matter? New Evidence from Matched Firm Survey and Register Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(355), pages 689-712, July.
    2. Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2023. "The Extent of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: New Evidence from Payroll Data," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 60-76, December.
    3. Guido Matias Cortes & Eliza C. Forsythe, 2020. "Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act on Earnings and Inequality," Upjohn Working Papers 20-332, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Jason Lennard, 2023. "Sticky wages and the Great Depression: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(2), pages 196-222.
    5. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Ernesto Villanueva, 2020. "Wage determination and the bite of collective contracts in Italy and Spain: evidence from the metal working industry," Working Papers 2036, Banco de España.
    6. Bertheau, Antoine & Kudlyak, Marianna & Larsen, Birthe & Bennedsen, Morten, 2025. "Why Firms Lay Off Workers Instead of Cutting Wages: Evidence From Linked Survey-Administrative Data," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 4/2025, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    7. Reizer, Balázs, 2022. "Employment and Wage Consequences of Flexible Wage Components," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. repec:ehl:wpaper:112428 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Amory Martin & Maryia Markhvida & Stéphane Hallegatte & Brian Walsh, 2020. "Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 453-479, October.
    10. Marco Fongoni & Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2023. "When are wages cut? The roles of incomplete contracts and employee involvement," Working Papers hal-03953201, HAL.
    11. Ladislav Suhányi & Alžbeta Suhányiová & Jaroslava Kádárová & Jaroslava Janeková, 2023. "Relationships between Average Wages in the Manufacturing Sector and Economic Indicators of the Manufacturing Sector in the Region of Visegrad Group Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Marco Fongoni & Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2023. "Why wages don't fall in jobs with incomplete contracts," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-12, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    13. Laszlo Goerke, 2021. "Habit formation and wage determination," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 61-76, January.
    14. Steven J. Davis & Pawel M. Krolikowski, 2025. "Sticky Wages on the Layoff Margin," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(2), pages 491-524, February.
    15. Daniel Schäfer & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Nominal Wage Adjustments and the Composition of Pay: New Evidence from Payroll Data," Economics working papers 2020-11, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    16. Hande Inanc, "undated". "Breaking Down the Numbers: What Does COVID-19 Mean for Youth Unemployment?," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 3ba094f7d75b48dbb9b63e16a, Mathematica Policy Research.
    17. Merkl, Christian & Stüber, Heiko, 2024. "Wage and employment cyclicalities at the establishment level," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Matteo Cacciatore & Federico Ravenna, 2021. "Uncertainty, Wages and the Business Cycle," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2797-2823.
    19. John Grigsby & Erik Hurst & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2021. "Aggregate Nominal Wage Adjustments: New Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(2), pages 428-471, February.
    20. Smith, Eric, 2025. "On-the-job wage dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    21. Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Jiri Slacalek & Matthew N. White, 2021. "Modeling the Consumption Response to the CARES Act," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 107-141, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; wages; New England; labor costs; unemployment rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcq:88244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Spozio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbbous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.