IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/epgewp/674.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are CGE Models still useful in economic policy making?

Author

Listed:
  • Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão

Abstract

This paper develops background considerations to help better framing the results of a CGE exercise. Three main criticisms are usually addressed to CGE efforts. First, they are too aggregate, their conclusions failing to shed light on relevant sectors or issues. Second, they imply huge data requirements. Timeliness is frequently jeopardised by out-dated sources, benchmarks referring to realities gone by. Finally, results are meaningless, as they answer wrong or ill-posed questions. Modelling demands end up by creating a rather artificial context, where the original questions lose content. In spite of a positive outlook on the first two, crucial questions lie in the third point. After elaborating such questions, and trying to answer some, the text argues that CGE models can come closer to reality. If their use is still scarce to give way to a fruitful symbiosis between negotiations and simulation results, they remain the only available technique providing a global, inter-related way of capturing economy-wide effects of several different policies. International organisations can play a major role supporting and encouraging improvements. They are also uniquely positioned to enhance information and data sharing, as well as putting people from various origins together, to share their experiences. A serious and complex homework is however required, to correct, at least, the most dangerous present shortcomings of the technique.

Suggested Citation

  • Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão, 2008. "Are CGE Models still useful in economic policy making?," FGV/EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 674, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:674
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/454/1/2296.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, James E & Neary, J Peter, 1994. "Measuring the Restrictiveness of Trade Policy," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(2), pages 151-169, May.
    2. Lloyd, P. J. & Schweinberger, A. G., 1997. "Conflict generating product price changes: The imputed output approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1569-1587, August.
    3. Markusen, James R, 1989. "Trade in Producer Services and in Other Specialized Intermediate Inputs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 85-95, March.
    4. Lloyd, P. J. & MacLaren, D., 2002. "Measures of trade openness using CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 67-81, March.
    5. Lloyd, P. J. & Schweinberger, A. G., 1988. "Trade expenditure functions and the gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 275-297, May.
    6. Steven R. Grenadier, 2000. "Option Exercise Games: The Intersection Of Real Options And Game Theory," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 13(2), pages 99-107.
    7. J. Peter Neary & Albert G. Schweinberger, 1986. "Factor Content Functions and the Theory of International Trade," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 421-432.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:674. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da FGV/EPGE). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/epgvfbr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.