IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Anticipatory effects in the FTSE 100 index revisions

  • Fernandes, Marcelo
  • Mergulhão, João de Mendonça

This paper examines the price impact of trading due to expected changes in the FTSE 100 index composition. We focus on the latter index because it employs publicly-known objective criteria to determine membership and hence it provides a natural context to investigate anticipatory trading e ects. We propose a panel-regression event study that backs out these anticipatory e ects by looking at the price impact of the ex-ante proba-bility of changing index membership status. Our ndings reveal that anticipative trading explains about 40% and 23% of the cumulative abnormal returns of additions and deletions, respectively. We con rm these in-sample results out of sample by tracking the performance of a trading strategy that relies on the addition/deletion probability estimates. The perfor-mance is indeed very promising in that it entails an average daily excess return of 11 basis points over the FTSE 100 index.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/11337/1/TD+345+-+CEQEF+13+-+Marcelo+Fernandes+-+Jo%C3%A3o+Mergulh%C3%A3o.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 345.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 09 Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:345
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Rua Itapeva, 474, 13o andar, CEP 01332-000, São Paulo - SP

Phone: 55 (011) 3799-3350
Fax: 55 (011) 3799-3357
Web page: http://eesp.fgv.br
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
  2. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 291-307, September.
  3. Copeland, Thomas E. & Mayers, David, 1982. "The value line enigma (1965-1978) : A case study of performance evaluation issues," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 289-321, November.
  4. Dhillon, Upinder & Johnson, Herb, 1991. "Changes in the Standard and Poor's 500 List," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 75-85, January.
  5. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2000. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm152, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
  6. Andros Gregoriou & Christos Ioannidis, 2006. "Information costs and liquidity effects from changes in the FTSE 100 list," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 347-360.
  7. Edmister, Robert O & Graham, A Steven & Pirie, Wendy L, 1994. "Excess Returns of Index Replacement Stocks: Evidence of Liquidity and Substitutability," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 333-46, Fall.
  8. Bryan Mase, 2007. "The Impact of Changes in the FTSE 100 Index," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 461-484, 08.
  9. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  10. Lynch, Anthony W & Mendenhall, Richard R, 1997. "New Evidence on Stock Price Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 Index," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(3), pages 351-83, July.
  11. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1986. "Event study methodologies and the size effect : The case of UK press recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-142, September.
  12. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. " Do Demand Curves for Stocks Slope Down?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 579-90, July.
  13. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  14. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
  15. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  16. Beneish, Messod D & Whaley, Robert E, 1996. " An Anatomy of the "S&P Game": The Effects of Changing the Rules," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1909-30, December.
  17. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
  18. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  19. Jobson, J. D. & Korkie, Bob, 1983. "Statistical Inference in Two-Parameter Portfolio Theory with Multiple Regression Software," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 189-197, June.
  20. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
  21. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 2000. "Demand Curves for Stocks "Do "Slope Down: New Evidence from an Index Weights Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 893-912, 04.
  23. Ahern, Kenneth R., 2009. "Sample selection and event study estimation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 466-482, June.
  24. Treynor, Jack L & Black, Fischer, 1973. "How to Use Security Analysis to Improve Portfolio Selection," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(1), pages 66-86, January.
  25. Baker, H Kent & Haslem, John A, 1974. "Toward the Development of Client-Specified Valuation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1255-63, September.
  26. Harris, Lawrence E & Gurel, Eitan, 1986. " Price and Volume Effects Associated with Changes in the S&P 500 List: New Evidence for the Existence of Price Pressures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 815-29, September.
  27. Erwin, Gayle R & Miller, James M, 1998. "The Liquidity Effects Associated with Addition of a Stock to the S&P 500 Index: Evidence from Bid/Ask Spreads," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 131-46, February.
  28. Robert O. Edmister & A. Steven Graham & Wendy L. Pirie, 1994. "Excess Returns Of Index Replacement Stocks: Evidence Of Liquidity And Substitutability," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 333-346, 09.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:345. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da EPGE)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.