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Predicting one Shot Play in 2x2 Games Using Beliefs Based on Minimax Regret

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  • Andrea Gallice

    (European University Institute)

Abstract

We present a simple procedure that selects the strategies most likely to be played by inexperienced agents who interact in one shot 2x2 matching pennies games. As a first step we axiomatically describe players’ beliefs. We find the minimax regret criterion to be the simplest functional form that satisfies all the axioms. Then we hypothesize players act as if they were best responding to the belief their opponent plays accordino to minimax regret. When compared with existing experimental evidences about one shot matching pennies games, the procedure correctly indicates the choices of around 80% of the players. Applications to other classes of games are also explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Gallice, 2006. "Predicting one Shot Play in 2x2 Games Using Beliefs Based on Minimax Regret," Working Papers 2006.31, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2006.31
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gallice, Andrea, 2007. "Best Responding to What? A Behavioral Approach to One Shot Play in 2x2 Games," Discussion Papers in Economics 1365, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Raghu Suryanarayanan, 2006. "A Model of Anticipated Regret and Endogenous Beliefs," CSEF Working Papers 161, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Dec 2008.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictions; Minimax regret; Beliefs; Matching pennies; Experiments;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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