IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fem/femwpa/2003.81.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Lanza

    (Eni S.p.A., Roma, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano and CRENoS, Cagliari, Italy)

  • Matteo Manera

    (Department of Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy)

  • Massimo Giovannini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy)

Abstract

In this paper we investigate crude oil and products price dynamics. We present a comparison among ten price series of crude oils and fourteen price series of petroleum products, considering four distinct market areas (Mediterranean, North Western Europe, Latin America and North America) over the period 1994-2002. We provide first a complete analysis of crude oil and product price dynamics using cointegration and error correction models. Subsequently we use the error correction specification to predict crude oil prices over the horizon January 2002-June 2002.The main findings of the paper can be summarized as follows: a) differences in quality are crucial to understand the behaviour of crudes; b) prices of crude oils whose physical characteristics are more similar to the marker show the following regularities: b1) they converge more rapidly to the long-run equilibrium; b2) there is an almost monotonic relation between Mean Absolute Percentage Error values and crude quality, measured by API° gravity and sulphur concentration; c) the price of the marker is the driving variable of the crude price also in the short-run, irrespective of the specific geographical area and the quality of the crude under analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera & Massimo Giovannini, 2003. "Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets," Working Papers 2003.81, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.81
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/Publication/NDL2003/NDL2003-081.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    2. Gjolberg, Ole & Johnsen, Thore, 1999. "Risk management in the oil industry: can information on long-run equilibrium prices be utilized?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 517-527, December.
    3. Adrangi, Bahram & Chatrath, Arjun & Raffiee, Kambiz & D. Ripple, Ronald, 2001. "Alaska North Slope crude oil price and the behavior of diesel prices in California," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-42, January.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mario Denni & G. Frewer, 2006. "New evidence on the relationship beetween crude oil and petroleum product prices," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0061, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    2. Zavaleta, Armando & Walls, W.D. & Rusco, Frank W., 2015. "Refining for export and the convergence of petroleum product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 206-214.
    3. Bertrand Candelon & Marc Joëts & Sessi Tokpavi, 2012. "Testing for crude oil markets globalization during extreme price movements," Post-Print hal-01411687, HAL.
    4. Candelon, Bertrand & Joëts, Marc & Tokpavi, Sessi, 2013. "Testing for Granger causality in distribution tails: An application to oil markets integration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 276-285.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil prices; Product prices; Error correction models; Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2003.81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.