IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/clg/wpaper/2013-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Refining for Export and the Convergence of Petroleum Product Prices

Author

Listed:
  • A. Zavaleta
  • W. D. Walls

    (University of Calgary)

  • F. Rusco

Abstract

The refining industry has changed over the past decades from one in which petroleum refining capacity primarily served local and regional markets to one in which trade in refined petroleum products has become more widespread. We investigate the hypothesis of increasing globalization by examining the convergence of prices for refined products across different markets. Using data on refined products from market centers in the US and Europe, we test for convergence of prices using standard time-series techniques. The data plainly show that markets for refined petroleum products have become more interrelated as Europe has exported its gasoline surplus and global demand for petroleum products has approached refining capacity. The econometric evidence supports the hypothesis that the US and European markets for oil and refined products are integrated. We find evidence that a structural break during the financial crisis of 2008 changed the long-run equilibrium price relationships and the short-run price dynamics. Refined product markets are likely to experience continued globalization given trends in the United States and Europe and because of key export-oriented refining capacity investments made to take advantage of access to specific crude oil sources.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Zavaleta & W. D. Walls & F. Rusco, "undated". "Refining for Export and the Convergence of Petroleum Product Prices," Working Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 06 Dec 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2013-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera & Massimo Giovannini, 2003. "Oil and Product Price Dynamics in International Petroleum Markets," Working Papers 2003.81, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    5. W. David Walls & Frank W. Rusco, 2007. "Price Effects of Boutique Motor Fuels: Federal Environmental Standards, Regional Fuel Choices, and Local Gasoline Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 145-164.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    7. Serletis, Apostolos, 1994. "A cointegration analysis of petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 93-97, April.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Asche, Frank & Gjolberg, Ole & Volker, Teresa, 2003. "Price relationships in the petroleum market: an analysis of crude oil and refined product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 289-301, May.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Kendix, Michael & Walls, W.D., 2010. "Estimating the impact of refinery outages on petroleum product prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1291-1298, November.
    12. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    14. S. Gurcan Gulen, 1997. "Regionalization in the World Crude Oil Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 109-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Yanfeng & Wen, Xiaoqian & Wu, Yanrui & Guo, Xiumei, 2016. "How is China's coke price related with the world oil price? The role of extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 22-33.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2017. "Estimating the speed of adjustment to target levels: The case of energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 419-427.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2013-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/declgca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.