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Refining for Export and the Convergence of Petroleum Product Prices

Author

Listed:
  • A. Zavaleta
  • W. D. Walls

    (University of Calgary)

  • F. Rusco

Abstract

The refining industry has changed over the past decades from one in which petroleum refining capacity primarily served local and regional markets to one in which trade in refined petroleum products has become more widespread. We investigate the hypothesis of increasing globalization by examining the convergence of prices for refined products across different markets. Using data on refined products from market centers in the US and Europe, we test for convergence of prices using standard time-series techniques. The data plainly show that markets for refined petroleum products have become more interrelated as Europe has exported its gasoline surplus and global demand for petroleum products has approached refining capacity. The econometric evidence supports the hypothesis that the US and European markets for oil and refined products are integrated. We find evidence that a structural break during the financial crisis of 2008 changed the long-run equilibrium price relationships and the short-run price dynamics. Refined product markets are likely to experience continued globalization given trends in the United States and Europe and because of key export-oriented refining capacity investments made to take advantage of access to specific crude oil sources.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Zavaleta & W. D. Walls & F. Rusco, "undated". "Refining for Export and the Convergence of Petroleum Product Prices," Working Papers 2013-32, Department of Economics, University of Calgary, revised 06 Dec 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:clg:wpaper:2013-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Bravo Caro, José Manuel & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús & Vides, José Carlos, 2020. "A new way of measuring the WTI – Brent spread. Globalization, shock persistence and common trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Guo, Yanfeng & Wen, Xiaoqian & Wu, Yanrui & Guo, Xiumei, 2016. "How is China's coke price related with the world oil price? The role of extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 22-33.
    3. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2017. "Estimating the speed of adjustment to target levels: The case of energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 419-427.
    4. Balaguer, Jacint & Ripollés, Jordi, 2018. "The dynamics pattern of price dispersion in retail fuel markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 546-564.
    5. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "A review of the evidence on the relation between crude oil prices and petroleum product prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Ruble, Isabella, 2019. "The U.S. crude oil refining industry: Recent developments, upcoming challenges and prospects for exports," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • M2 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics

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