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Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results

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  • Bartosz Przywara

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsTo correctly assess the demography-related risks facing public finances in the EU over the next couple of decades and establish adequate policy responses to the demographic, social and economic developments, it is essential to devise a reliable method to estimate future health care expenditure. To tackle this issue, the European Commission and the Economic Policy Committee projected future public health care expenditure in all EU Member States over the period 2007-2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 417, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0417
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    File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp417_en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yannick L'Horty & Alain Quinet & Frédéric Rupprecht, 1997. "Expliquer la croissance des dépenses de santé : le rôle du niveau de vie et du progrès technique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 129(3), pages 257-268.
    2. Raphael Wittenberg & Juliette Malley & Linda Pickard & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Derek King, 2006. "Projections of Future Expediture on Long-Term Care for Older People," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 49-53.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sommersguter-Reichmann, Margit & Stepan, Adolf, 2015. "The interplay between regulation and efficiency: Evidence from the Austrian hospital inpatient sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-21.
    2. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    3. Maciej Lis, 2016. "Age or time-to-death – what drives health care expenditures? Panel data evidence from the OECD countries," IBS Working Papers 04/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    4. Izabela Rydlewska-Liszkowska, 2015. "Publiczne i prywatne finansowanie ochrony zdrowia – mo¿liwoœci i ograniczenia analizy na poziomie regionalnym (Publiczne i prywatne finansowanie ochrony zdrowia – mozliwoœci i ograniczenia analizy na ," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(53), pages 165-180.
    5. Maciej Lis, 2015. "Red Herring in the Vistula River: Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure," IBS Working Papers 13/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Healths Ageing Demography Budgetary projection Public finances Health care expenditure;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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