IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/euf/ecopap/0417.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results

Author

Listed:
  • Bartosz Przywara

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsTo correctly assess the demography-related risks facing public finances in the EU over the next couple of decades and establish adequate policy responses to the demographic, social and economic developments, it is essential to devise a reliable method to estimate future health care expenditure. To tackle this issue, the European Commission and the Economic Policy Committee projected future public health care expenditure in all EU Member States over the period 2007-2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 417, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp417_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oecd, 2006. "Projecting OECD Health and Long-Term Care Expenditures: What Are the Main Drivers?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 477, OECD Publishing.
    2. Fogel, Robert W, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 369-395, June.
    3. Yannick L'Horty & Alain Quinet & Frédéric Rupprecht, 1997. "Expliquer la croissance des dépenses de santé : le rôle du niveau de vie et du progrès technique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 129(3), pages 257-268.
    4. Wickstrom, Jannie & Serup-Hansen, Niels & Kristiansen, Ivar Sonbo, 2002. "Future health care costs--do health care costs during the last year of life matter?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 161-172, November.
    5. Raphael Wittenberg & Juliette Malley & Linda Pickard & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Derek King, 2006. "Projections of Future Expediture on Long-Term Care for Older People," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(V), pages 49-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Vera & Pythagoras Petratos & Torsten Oliver Salge, 2018. "A widening gap? Static and dynamic performance differences between specialist and general hospitals," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 25-36, March.
    2. Alena Maaytová & Eva Gajdošová & Lenka Láchová, 2018. "Changes in the Demographic Structure and Health Expenditures in the Czech Republic [Změny v demografické struktuře a výdaje zdravotnictví České republiky]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 19-31.
    3. Nicole L. Van Der Gaag & Govert Bijwaard & Joop de Beer & Luc Bonneux, 2015. "A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(3), pages 75-106.
    4. Vincenzo Atella & Dana Goldman & Daniel McFadden, 2021. "Disparate ageing: The role of education and socioeconomic gradients in future health and disability in an international context," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 3-10, November.
    5. Böhm, Sebastian & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "R&D-driven medical progress, health care costs, and the future of human longevity," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    6. Böhm, Sebastian & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2017. "The Future of Human Health, Longevity, and Health Costs," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168288, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Janina Reinkowski, 2014. "Empirical Essays in the Economics of Ageing and the Economics of Innovation," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53.
    8. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    9. Izabela Rydlewska-Liszkowska, 2015. "Publiczne i prywatne finansowanie ochrony zdrowia – mo¿liwoœci i ograniczenia analizy na poziomie regionalnym (Publiczne i prywatne finansowanie ochrony zdrowia – mozliwoœci i ograniczenia analizy na ," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(53), pages 165-180.
    10. Maciej Lis, 2015. "Red Herring in the Vistula River: Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure," IBS Working Papers 13/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    11. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    12. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    13. José Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "Can health public expenditure reduce the tragic consequences of road traffic accidents? The EU-27 experience," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(6), pages 645-652, July.
    14. Maciej Lis, 2016. "Age or time-to-death – what drives health care expenditures? Panel data evidence from the OECD countries," IBS Working Papers 04/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    15. Janina Reinkowski, 2013. "Should We Care that They Care? Grandchild Care and Its Impact on Grandparent Health," ifo Working Paper Series 165, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. Yevgeniy Goryakin & Sophie P Thiébaut & Sébastien Cortaredona & M Aliénor Lerouge & Michele Cecchini & Andrea B Feigl & Bruno Ventelou, 2020. "Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    17. Sommersguter-Reichmann, Margit & Stepan, Adolf, 2015. "The interplay between regulation and efficiency: Evidence from the Austrian hospital inpatient sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-21.
    18. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    2. Mickael Bech & Terkel Christiansen & Ehsan Khoman & Jørgen Lauridsen & Martin Weale, 2011. "Ageing and health care expenditure in EU-15," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 12(5), pages 469-478, October.
    3. Ed Westerhout & Frank Pellikaan, 2005. "Can we afford to live longer in better health?," CPB Document 85, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Ed Westerhout & Frank Pellikaan, 2005. "Can we afford to live longer in better health?," CPB Document 85.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. Harold Alderman & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey, 2006. "Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 450-474, July.
    6. Karen Clay & Werner Troesken & Michael Haines, 2014. "Lead and Mortality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(3), pages 458-470, July.
    7. John Komlos, 2009. "Recent Trends in Height by Gender and Ethnicity in the US in Relation to Levels of Income," NBER Working Papers 14635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. C. Lee, 1998. "Life Cycle Savings in the United States, 1900-1990," CPE working papers 0014, University of Chicago - Centre for Population Economics.
    9. Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Martínez Carrion, José Miguel, 2012. "The comovement between height and some economic development indicators in Spain," UMUFAE Economics Working Papers 26464, DIGITUM. Universidad de Murcia.
    10. David Croix & Alessandro Sommacal, 2009. "A Theory of Medical Effectiveness, Differential Mortality, Income Inequality and Growth for Pre-Industrial England," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 2-35.
    11. Thomas, Duncan & Strauss, John, 1997. "Health and wages: Evidence on men and women in urban Brazil," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 159-185, March.
    12. Huang, Wei & Zhou, Yi, 2013. "Effects of education on cognition at older ages: Evidence from China's Great Famine," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 54-62.
    13. Colombier, Carsten & Weber, Werner, 2009. "Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis," MPRA Paper 26747, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2009.
    14. Bhagowalia, Priya & Chen, Susan E. & Masters, William A., 2011. "Effects and determinants of mild underweight among preschool children across countries and over time," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 66-77, January.
    15. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    16. Fogel, Robert W, 2004. "Health, Nutrition, and Economic Growth," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(3), pages 643-658, April.
    17. Priya Bhagowalia & Susan E. Chen & William A. Masters, 2008. "The Distribution Of Child Nutritional Status Across Countries And Over Time," Working Papers 08-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14195 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Scott Alan Carson & Scott A. Carson, 2022. "Nineteenth and Early 20th Century Physical Activity and Calories by Gender and Race," CESifo Working Paper Series 10140, CESifo.
    20. Vicente Ortún & Ricard Meneu & Salvador Peiró, 2004. "El impacto de los servicios sanitarios sobre la salud," Economics Working Papers 752, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    21. McNamara, Paul E. & Ulimwengu, John M. & Leonard, Kenneth L., 2010. "Do health investments improve agricultural productivity? Lessons from agricultural household and health research," IFPRI discussion papers 1012, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Healths Ageing Demography Budgetary projection Public finances Health care expenditure;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0417. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ECFIN INFO (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dg2ecbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.