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Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results

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  • Bartosz Przywara

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsTo correctly assess the demography-related risks facing public finances in the EU over the next couple of decades and establish adequate policy responses to the demographic, social and economic developments, it is essential to devise a reliable method to estimate future health care expenditure. To tackle this issue, the European Commission and the Economic Policy Committee projected future public health care expenditure in all EU Member States over the period 2007-2060. A unique internationally comparable database has been established and a model built allowing to project health care spending in a common, coherent framework of macroeconomic variables. The model incorporates the most recent developments in demography and epidemiology and draws on new insights from health economics, allowing the comparison of the challenges facing both individual countries' health care systems and European society in its entirety.

Suggested Citation

  • Bartosz Przywara, 2010. "Projecting future health care expenditure at European level: drivers, methodology and main results," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 417, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0417
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    3. Alena Maaytová & Eva Gajdošová & Lenka Láchová, 2018. "Changes in the Demographic Structure and Health Expenditures in the Czech Republic [Změny v demografické struktuře a výdaje zdravotnictví České republiky]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 19-31.
    4. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    5. Nicole L. Van Der Gaag & Govert Bijwaard & Joop de Beer & Luc Bonneux, 2015. "A multistate model to project elderly disability in case of limited data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(3), pages 75-106.
    6. Vincenzo Atella & Dana Goldman & Daniel McFadden, 2021. "Disparate ageing: The role of education and socioeconomic gradients in future health and disability in an international context," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 3-10, November.
    7. José Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Xavier Fageda, 2014. "Can health public expenditure reduce the tragic consequences of road traffic accidents? The EU-27 experience," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(6), pages 645-652, July.
    8. Maciej Lis, 2016. "Age or time-to-death – what drives health care expenditures? Panel data evidence from the OECD countries," IBS Working Papers 04/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    9. Böhm, Sebastian & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "R&D-driven medical progress, health care costs, and the future of human longevity," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    10. Böhm, Sebastian & Grossmann, Volker & Strulik, Holger, 2017. "The Future of Human Health, Longevity, and Health Costs," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168288, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Janina Reinkowski, 2013. "Should We Care that They Care? Grandchild Care and Its Impact on Grandparent Health," ifo Working Paper Series 165, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Yevgeniy Goryakin & Sophie P Thiébaut & Sébastien Cortaredona & M Aliénor Lerouge & Michele Cecchini & Andrea B Feigl & Bruno Ventelou, 2020. "Assessing the future medical cost burden for the European health systems under alternative exposure-to-risks scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    13. Sommersguter-Reichmann, Margit & Stepan, Adolf, 2015. "The interplay between regulation and efficiency: Evidence from the Austrian hospital inpatient sector," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-21.
    14. Janina Reinkowski, 2014. "Empirical Essays in the Economics of Ageing and the Economics of Innovation," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 53.
    15. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    16. Izabela Rydlewska-Liszkowska, 2015. "Publiczne i prywatne finansowanie ochrony zdrowia – mo¿liwoœci i ograniczenia analizy na poziomie regionalnym (Publiczne i prywatne finansowanie ochrony zdrowia – mozliwoœci i ograniczenia analizy na ," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 13(53), pages 165-180.
    17. Maciej Lis, 2015. "Red Herring in the Vistula River: Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure," IBS Working Papers 13/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    18. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Healths Ageing Demography Budgetary projection Public finances Health care expenditure;

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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