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When the Last Big Arrow Was Loosed: How the One-Child Policy relaxations reshaped fertility trends in China

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Listed:
  • Anqi LI
  • Shiko MARUYAMA
  • Yangyang ZHANG

Abstract

In 2016, China's Universal Two-Child Policy ended the decades-long One-Child Policy. Fertility rose through 2017 and then fell, fueling claims that the reform's effects were transitory. Using the China Family Panel Studies and province-year exemption histories since the 1980s, we reconstruct couple-year second-child eligibility and estimate its causal effect. Eligibility raises the second-birth probability by 7.1 percentage points, with effects persisting for at least a decade. Counterfactual simulations imply that relaxations lifted the TFR level but left its secular downward slope largely intact, highlighting the distinction between a temporary spike, an upward level shift, and a genuine reversal of decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Anqi LI & Shiko MARUYAMA & Yangyang ZHANG, 2026. "When the Last Big Arrow Was Loosed: How the One-Child Policy relaxations reshaped fertility trends in China," Discussion papers 26001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:26001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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