IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/esj/esridp/011.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Another Look at Origins of the Asian Crisis: Tests of External Borrowing Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • MIYAO Ryuzo

Abstract

The existing discussions about origins of the Asian crisis can be summarized into two broad views: "economic fundamentals" view and "financial panic" view. This paper attempts to distinguish these two views empirically by testing external solvency of the country using intertemporal borrowing constraints. It adopts the procedures developed by Ahmed and Rogers (1995) and Trehan and Walsh (1991) and examines three affected countries: Thailand, Indonesia and Korea. The evidence indicates that while the external solvency condition was generally satisfied in Indonesia and Korea in the pre-crisis period, it was not the case for Thailand with a sample extending to the 1990s when massive capital inflows took place. This suggests that economic fundamentals were the main origins of the Thai crisis while a financial panic was a more plausible explanation of Indonesian and Korean crises.

Suggested Citation

  • MIYAO Ryuzo, 2002. "Another Look at Origins of the Asian Crisis: Tests of External Borrowing Constraints," ESRI Discussion paper series 011, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/archive/e_dis/e_dis011/e_dis011a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    4. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    6. Velasco, A. & Chang, R., 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," Working Papers 98-27, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    8. Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August.
    9. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
    10. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Takatoshi Ito & Kathryn M. Dominguez & Moeen Qureshi & Zhang Shengman & Masaru Yoshitomi, 1999. "Capital Flows to East Asia," NBER Chapters,in: International Capital Flows, pages 111-190 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
    13. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
    14. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
    15. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ryuzo Miyao, 2004. "Economic Fundamentals or Financial Panic? An Empirical Study on the Origins of the Asian Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 151, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    2. Eiji Ogawa & Takeshi Kudo, 2007. "Possible depreciation of the US dollar for unsustainable current account deficit in the United States," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 24-30, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esj:esridp:011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (KAWAMOTO Takuma). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esrgvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.