The Effect of the (Woman, Life, Freedom) Protests on Life Satisfaction in Iran: Evidence from Survey Data

The (Woman, Life, Freedom) (WLF) protests in Iran, ignited by Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022, marked the longest anti-government uprising since 1979, blending gendered demands with violent unrest and state repression. This study examines how exposure to violent protests affects life satisfaction. Using two representative surveys from January-February 2022 (pre-protests) and November 2022 (peak protests), we analyze 2,256 respondents with consistent sampling methods. Using probit regressions and an instrumental variable approach with precipitation and distance from Saqqez as instruments, we measure proximity to violent events via ACLED data, treating the 'protest environment' as a composite of protests and repression. Exposure to violent protests reduces life satisfaction by 3.6 percentage points, with effects proven robust to controls. Women experience the largest declines, exceeding unemployment’s impact, while international TV viewers report amplified effects, reflecting media’s role in shaping perceptions. Mediation analysis highlights insecurity as a key mechanism. These findings underscore the WLF’s female-led nature and authoritarian setting, advancing research on gendered unrest’s societal impact. Declining life satisfaction may signal rising dissent, challenging Iran’s regime stability, bridging contentious politics and public sentiment.