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The Necessity of a Lower Dollar and the Route There

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  • Dean Baker

Abstract

Debates over economic policy tend to be enormously confused. It is often the case that even high-level officials and well-known economists seem ignorant of basic accounting identities. This leads them to make claims that literally do not add up. This seems to be especially common in the case of debates on trade policy. This paper is intended to clarify some of the key issues. The first part is a simple accounting exercise showing that a large trade deficit implies that a country must either have a large budget deficit, negative private savings, or some combination of the two. Since both large budget deficits and negative private savings are generally viewed as undesirable, this means that a lower trade deficit should be a top policy priority. Furthermore, as a practical matter, a lower-valued dollar is the only plausible mechanism for getting the trade deficit closer to balanced. The second section shows the implications of a lower trade deficit for the economy in terms of the sectors that will expand. While some analysts have implied that in the future the United States will no longer be engaged in manufacturing, this is not a plausible economic scenario. If the United States will continue to consume manufactured goods then it will have to produce the bulk of these goods itself. There is no sector of the economy where exports can reasonably be expected to expand enough to pay for the country’s consumption of manufactured goods. The final section discusses mechanisms for lowering the value of the dollar. In public debates, the value of the dollar is often treated as being beyond the control of the U.S. government. This is not true. The government certainly has the ability to influence the value of the dollar; however it may be necessary to sacrifice other policy goals to achieve a desired exchange rate for the dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Baker, 2012. "The Necessity of a Lower Dollar and the Route There," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2012-04, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2012-04
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade; trade deficit; budget; budget deficit; national accounting; dollar; currency;

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H - Public Economics
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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