A Minskian Analysis of Financial Crisis in Developing Countries
This paper provides a framework for examining developing-country financial crisis. It is based upon Hyman Minsky's financial fragility thesis and applied to the case of Thailand 1984-1999. There is empirical evidence for the evolution of the Thai economy through the Minskian regimes (hedged through speculative to Ponzi) in the period prior to the onset of the 1997 Asian crisis. Evidence also suggests that the Ponzi regime has two stages and that the rate of return on nonproductive speculative investment turns negative as the country entered the Ponzi regime. The diversion of foreign capital inflows to speculative investment played an important part in the deterioration of the Thai financial position. These results, if general, have strong implications for the field of country risk analysis, in particular, for the design of early warning models of financial crisis for developing countries.
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- Anwar M. Shaikh, 1995.
"The Stock Market and the Corporate Sector: Profit-Based Approach,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
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- Anwar M. Shaikh, 1998. "The Stock Market and the Corporate Sector: A Profit-Based Approach," Macroeconomics 9811007, EconWPA.
- repec:wsi:wschap:9789814749589_0011 is not listed on IDEAS
- Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, November.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Methodology for an Early Warning System: The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Goldstein, Morris, 2000. "Notes on contagion," MPRA Paper 24569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System," MPRA Paper 24580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "The Wake of Crises and Devaluations," MPRA Paper 24570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability," MPRA Paper 24579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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