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Testing Changing Harmonic Regressors

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.

Abstract

Econometric models for economic time series may include harmonic regressors to describe cyclical patterns in the data. This paper focuses on the possibility that the cycle periods in these regressors change over time. To this end, a smooth regime-switching harmonic regression is proposed, and a diagnostic test for changing cycle periods is proposed. An application to annual GDP growth in the Netherlands (for 1969-2007) shows that around 1975 the business cycle period shifted from about 3 years to about 11 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2009. "Testing Changing Harmonic Regressors," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:16216
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip Hans Franses & Bert de Groot & Rianne Legerstee, 2009. "Testing for harmonic regressors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 339-346.
    2. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-121, January.
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    Keywords

    harmonic regressors; smooth regime-switching model;

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