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Agricultural Productivity as a Prerequisite of Industrialization: Some New Evidence on Trade Openness and Premature Deindustrialization

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  • Arnaud Daymard

    (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA)

Abstract

Most studies of structural transformation assume a closed economy when modeling. Is this assumption justified in a globalized world? I test the relevance of closed versus open economy models of structural transformation using data on the sectoral productivity levels of developed and developing countries over the 1950-2013 period. The empirical findings suggest that trade openness does affect the mechanics of structural transformation in the way predicted by the theory, but that the practical effect of trade is small. Nonetheless, the difficult creation of manufacturing jobs in Latin America and Africa—a trait commonly referred to as ”premature deindustrialization”—suggests that trade might have a significant role on the mechanics of manufacturing employment, a role that it does not play on agriculture and services. As an alternative to the role of trade, I also emphasize that large fixed costs in the formal manufacturing sector might explain the difficult industrialization of Latin America and Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Daymard, 2020. "Agricultural Productivity as a Prerequisite of Industrialization: Some New Evidence on Trade Openness and Premature Deindustrialization," THEMA Working Papers 2020-07, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2020-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lar, Ni & Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2023. "Premature deindustrialization or reindustrialization: The case of China’s latecomer provinces," MPRA Paper 118423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Taguchi, Hiroyuki, 2022. "Premature Deindustrialization Risk: The Case of Thailand," MPRA Paper 113560, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural transformation; industrialization; agricultural productivity; international trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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