IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eie/wpaper/1504.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monnet's Error

Author

Listed:
  • Luigi Guiso

    (EIEF and CEPR)

  • Paola Sapienza

    (Northwestern University, NBER and CEPR)

  • Luigi Zingales

    (University of Chicago, NBER and CEPR)

Abstract

Entering a currency union without any political union European countries have taken a gamble: will the needs of the currency union force a political integration (as anticipated by Monnet) or will the tensions create a backlash, as suggested by Kaldor, Friedman and many others? We try to answer this question by analyzing the cross sectional and time series variation in pro-European sentiments in the EU 15 countries. The 1992 Maastricht Treaty seems to have reduced the pro-Europe sentiment as does the 2010 Eurozone crisis. Yet, in spite of the worst recession in recent history, the Europeans still support the common currency. Europe seems trapped: there is no desire to go backward, no interest in going forward, but it is economically unsustainable to stay still.

Suggested Citation

  • Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2015. "Monnet's Error," EIEF Working Papers Series 1504, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eief.it/files/2015/04/wp-04-monnets-error.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrico Spolaore, 2013. "What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 125-144, Summer.
    2. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "The Diffusion of Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(2), pages 469-529.
    3. Stelios Michalopoulos & Elias Papaioannou, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1802-1848, July.
    4. Verbeek, Marno & Nijman, Theo, 1992. "Can Cohort Data Be Treated as Genuine Panel Data?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 9-23.
    5. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
    6. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    7. Stefan Napel & Mika Widgrén, 2006. "The Inter-Institutional Distribution of Power in EU Codecision," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 27(1), pages 129-154, August.
    8. Enrico Spolaore, 2013. "What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 125-144, Summer.
    9. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2009. "Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 1095-1131.
    10. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
    11. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    12. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Can cohort data be treated as genuine panel data?," Other publications TiSEM d4eada8f-b91c-4fe7-a58c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Euro Area in the Age of COVID-19
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-05-17 11:53:03

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Felix Roth & Edgar Baake & Lars Jonung & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2022. "Revisiting Public Support for the Euro, 1999–2017: Accounting for the Crisis and the Recovery," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 21-45, Springer.
    2. Aleberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini & Francesco Trebbi, 2017. "Is Europe an Optimal Political Area?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 169-234.
    3. Felix Roth & Lars Jonung, 2022. "Public Support for the Euro and Trust in the ECB: The First Two Decades of the Common Currency," Contributions to Economics, in: Public Support for the Euro, chapter 0, pages 1-19, Springer.
    4. Lucio Baccaro & Björn Bremer & Erik Neimanns, 2021. "Till austerity do us part? A survey experiment on support for the euro in Italy," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 401-423, September.
    5. Benito Arruñada & Matthias Krapf, 2019. "Religion and the European Union," International Economic Association Series, in: Jean-Paul Carvalho & Sriya Iyer & Jared Rubin (ed.), Advances in the Economics of Religion, chapter 0, pages 295-308, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Buscha, Franz & Muller, Daniel & Page, Lionel, 2017. "Can a common currency foster a shared social identity across different nations? The case of the euro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 318-336.
    7. Chase Foster & Jeffry Frieden, 2017. "Crisis of trust: Socio-economic determinants of Europeans’ confidence in government," European Union Politics, , vol. 18(4), pages 511-535, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    2. Denise R. Osborn & Dong Heon Kim & Marianne Sensier, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 621-639.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    4. Clémentine Florens & Eric Jondeau & Hervé Le Bihan, 2001. "Assessing GMM Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function," Econometrics 0111003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    6. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
    7. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Macroeconomics 0312007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Antonio Forte, 2010. "The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England: Is the Taylor Rule a useful benchmark for the last decade?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 53(2), pages 1-31.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5122 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 2001. "La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix, un bilan critique," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 111(6), pages 909-939.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1265-1300, October.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5122 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: New Evidence From Time‐Varying Interest Rate Rules," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 933-950, October.
    15. Jaime DE MELO & Marcelo OLARREAGA, 2017. "Trade Related Institutions and Development," Working Papers P199, FERDI.
    16. Moons, Cindy & Hellinckx, Kevin, 2019. "Did monetary policy fuel the housing bubble? An application to Ireland," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 294-315.
    17. Bernd Hayo & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Comparing monetary policy reaction functions: ECB versus Bundesbank," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 645-662, September.
    18. Hammermann, Felix, 2003. "Comparing Monetary Policy Strategies: Towards a Generalized Reaction Function," Kiel Working Papers 1170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Carlo Rosa, 2009. "Forecasting the Direction of Policy Rate Changes: The Importance of ECB Words," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 38(1‐2), pages 39-66, February.
    20. Alali, Walid Y., 2012. "Simple Rules of the Monetary Policy and Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," EconStor Preprints 269882, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    21. Shigeyuki Hamori & Naoko Hamori, 2009. "Introduction of the Euro and the Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7169, December.
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5122 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eie:wpaper:1504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facundo Piguillem (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/einauit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.