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Inflation variability and the relationship between inflation and growth

  • Raghbendra Jha

    ()

  • Tu Dang

We examine the effect of inflation variability and economic growth using annual historical data on both developing and developed countries. The data cover 182 developing countries and 31 developed countries for the period 1961-2009. Proxying inflation variability by the five-year coefficient of variation of inflation, we obtain the following results: (1) For developing countries, there is significant evidence to suggest that when the rate of inflation exceeds 10 % inflation variability has a negative effect on economic growth. (2) For developed countries, there is no significant evidence that inflation variability is detrimental to growth.

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2011/082011.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2011-08.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-08
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  1. Michael Sarel, 1995. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 95/56, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen, 1997. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 365, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for the G7," Working Papers 0064, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
  4. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  5. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
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  7. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce D, 1996. " Private Information, Money, and Growth: Indeterminacy, Fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin Effect," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 309-32, September.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
  10. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
  11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.
  12. Fountas, Stilianos, 2010. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and growth: Are they related?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 896-899, September.
  13. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
  14. Logue, Dennis E & Willett, Thomas D, 1976. "A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 151-58, May.
  15. Katsimbris, George M, 1985. "The Relationship between the Inflation Rate, Its Variability, and Output Growth Variability: Disaggregated International Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 179-88, May.
  16. Levi, Maurice D & Makin, John H, 1980. "Inflation Uncertainty and the Phillips Curve: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1022-27, December.
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