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Nonlinear estimators with integrated regressors but without exogeneity

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  • Robert de Jong

Abstract

This paper analyzes nonlinear cointegrating regressions as have been recently analyzed in a paper by Park and Phillips in Econometrica. I analyze the consequences of removing Park and Phillips' exogeneity assumption, which for the special case of a linear model would imply the asymptotic validity of the least squares estimator for linear cointegrating regressions. For the linear model, the unlikeliness of such an exogeneity assumption to hold in practice has inspired the `fully modified' technique, the `leads and lags' technique, and Park's `canonical regressions'. In this paper, a `fully modified' type technique is proposed for nonlinear cointegrating regressions. The mathematical tool for proving this result is a new so-called `convergence to stochastic integrals' result. This result is proven for objects that are summations of a stationary random variable times an asymptotically homogeneous function of an integrated process. The increments of the integrated process are allowed to be correlated with the stationary random variable. This result is derived by extending a line of proof pioneered in work by Chan and Wei

Suggested Citation

  • Robert de Jong, 2004. "Nonlinear estimators with integrated regressors but without exogeneity," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 324, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nawm04:324
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    File URL: http://repec.org/esNAWM04/up.18096.1049122020.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2000. "Nonstationary Binary Choice," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1249-1280, September.
    3. de Jong, Robert M. & Davidson, James, 2000. "The Functional Central Limit Theorem And Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals I," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 621-642, October.
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    5. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 269-298, June.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    7. Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 263-293, June.
    8. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    10. Park, Joon Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 2001. "Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 117-161, January.
    11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannis Kasparis & Peter C. B. Phillips & Tassos Magdalinos, 2014. "Nonlinearity Induced Weak Instrumentation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5-6), pages 676-712, August.
    2. Hong, Seung Hyun & Wagner, Martin, 2011. "Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions," Economics Series 264, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    3. Hong, Seung Hyun & Phillips, Peter C. B., 2010. "Testing Linearity in Cointegrating Relations With an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 96-114.
    4. Jesús Gonzalo & Jean‐Yves Pitarakis, 2006. "Threshold Effects in Cointegrating Relationships," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 813-833, December.
    5. Shi, Xiaoxia & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2012. "Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression Under Weak Identification," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 509-547, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinearity; integrated process; cointegration; fully modified;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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