IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecl/yaleco/33.html

Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Fair, Ray C.

    (Yale U)

Abstract

This paper takes a somewhat different approach from the recent literature in estimating exchange rate equations. It assumes uncovered interest rate parity and models how expectations are formed. Agents are assumed to base their expectations of future interest rates and prices, which are needed in the determination of the exchange rate, on predictions from a ten equation VAR model. The overall model is estimated by FIML under model consistent expectations. The model generally does better than the random walk model, and its properties are consistent with observed effects on exchange rates from surprise interest rate and price announcements. Also, the focus on expectations is consistent with the large observed short run variability of exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Fair, Ray C., 2008. "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations," Working Papers 33, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:yaleco:33
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Working-Papers/wp000/ddp0033.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2006. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 552-576, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ebrahim Merza & Imad A. Moosa, 2023. "Pitfalls in Econometric Forecasting with Illustrations from Exchange Rate Economics," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 147-172.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ken Miyajima, 2013. "Foreign exchange intervention and expectation in emerging economies," BIS Working Papers 414, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Sergeyev, Dmitriy & Iovino, Luigi, 2018. "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies Without Rational Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 13100, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Giacomo Rondina & Todd Walker, 2016. "Learning and Informational Stability of Dynamic REE with Incomplete Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 147-159, July.
    5. Candian, Giacomo, 2019. "Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
    6. Vygodina, Anna V. & Zorn, Thomas S. & DeFusco, Richard, 2008. "Asymmetry in the effects of economic fundamentals on rising and falling exchange rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 728-746, September.
    7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 125-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Liu, De-Chih & Chang, Yu-Chien, 2022. "Systematic variations in exchange rate returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 569-583.
    9. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357-388.
    10. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 11633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Chernov, Mikhail & Graveline, Jeremy & Zviadadze, Irina, 2018. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 137-170, February.
    12. Menkhoff, Lukas & Osler, Carol L. & Schmeling, Maik, 2010. "Limit-order submission strategies under asymmetric information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2665-2677, November.
    13. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Information heterogeneity, housing dynamics and the business cycle," EconStor Preprints 168561, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    14. Dick, Christian D. & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2015. "Exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 235-256.
    15. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
    16. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2018. "Long-run determination of the nominal exchange rate in the presence of national debts: Evidence from the yen-dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 18/01, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.
    17. Walker, Todd B., 2007. "How equilibrium prices reveal information in a time series model with disparately informed, competitive traders," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 512-537, November.
    18. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo.
    19. Yutaka Kurihara, 2015. "Are Japanese Stock Prices Important Deterministic Elements of Exchange Rate Returns?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 1-9.
    20. Liang, Hanchao & Yang, Chunpeng & Cai, Chuangqun, 2017. "Beauty contest, bounded rationality, and sentiment pricing dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 71-80.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:yaleco:33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edyalus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.