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Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism-Risk Assessments

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  • Viscusi, W. Kip

    (Vanderbilt University)

  • Zeckhauser, Richard J.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Recollection bias is a phenomenon whereby people, after observing a highly unexpected event, hold current risk beliefs about a similar event that are no higher than their recollection of their prior beliefs. This article explores the phenomenon of recollection bias with respect to individuals' perceptions of the risks of terrorism attacks. Over 60% of respondents in a national U.S. sample of over 900 adults believe that the risks of a future terrorist attack by either an airplane or in a public setting are no higher than they believed respectively before the 9/11 attack and the Boston Marathon bombing. Only one-fifth of respondents are free of any type of recollection bias. Recollection bias with respect to both events is negatively correlated with absolute levels of risk belief. Recollection bias - basically the belief that perceived risks have not increased - also dampens support for a variety of anti-terrorism measures, controlling for the level of risk beliefs and demographic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Viscusi, W. Kip & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2015. "Recollection Bias and Its Underpinnings: Lessons from Terrorism-Risk Assessments," Working Paper Series 15-066, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:15-066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xinsheng Liu & Kent E. Portney & Jeryl L. Mumpower & Arnold Vedlitz, 2019. "Terrorism Risk Assessment, Recollection Bias, and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(3), pages 553-570, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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