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Sudden stop of capital flows and the consequences for the banking sector and the real economy

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  • Neagu, Florian
  • Mihai, Irina

Abstract

The paper develops a macro-prudential liquidity stress-testing tool in order to capture the possible consequences of a capital outflow (including a run of deposits). The tool includes a feedback from the banking sector to the real economy, incorporates a link between liquidity risk and solvency risk, and is tailored for emerging market features. The stress-testing tool aims to: (i) test the capacity of the banking sector to withstand the sudden stop of capital flows, and to gauge the consequences of the liquidity stress to the solvency ratio; (ii) quantify the liquidity deficit that a central bank should accommodate; (iii) assess the impact on credit supply when the sudden stop occurs; and (iv) support the implementation of an orderly disintermediation process. The macro-prudential tool is applied on the Romanian banking sector. JEL Classification: G21, F32

Suggested Citation

  • Neagu, Florian & Mihai, Irina, 2013. "Sudden stop of capital flows and the consequences for the banking sector and the real economy," Working Paper Series 1591, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131591
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    2. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & Kapadia, Sujit & Brennan, Simon & Willison, Matthew, 2013. "A network model of financial system resilience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 219-235.
    3. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    4. Jan Willem van den End, 2012. "Liquidity stress-tester: do Basel III and unconventional monetary policy work?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1233-1257, August.
    5. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
    6. Costeiu, Adrian & Neagu, Florian, 2013. "Bridging the banking sector with the real economy: a financial stability perspective," Working Paper Series 1592, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banks; emerging markets; macro-prudential tool; stress-testing; systemic liquidity;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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