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An Experiment on a Multi-Period Beauty Contest Game

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  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
  • Yuta Takahashi

Abstract

We present and conduct a novel experiment on a multi-period beauty contest game motivated by the canonical New-Keynesian model. Participants continuously provide forecasts for prices spanning multiple future periods. These forecasts determine the price for the current period and participants’ payoffs. Our findings are threefold. First, the observed prices in the experiment deviate more from the rational expectations equilibrium prices under strategic complementarity than under strategic substitution. Second, participants’ expectations respond to announcements of future shocks on average. Finally, participants employ heuristics in their forecasting; however, the choice of heuristic varies with the degree of strategic complementarity.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuyuki Hanaki & Yuta Takahashi, 2023. "An Experiment on a Multi-Period Beauty Contest Game," ISER Discussion Paper 1213r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Jan 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1213r
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anufriev, Mikhail & Chernulich, Aleksei & Tuinstra, Jan, 2022. "Asset price volatility and investment horizons: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 19-48.
    2. Guillaume R. Fréchette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2017. "Infinitely repeated games in the laboratory: four perspectives on discounting and random termination," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(2), pages 279-308, June.
    3. Sean Crockett & John Duffy & Yehuda Izhakian, 2019. "An Experimental Test of the Lucas Asset Pricing Model," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(2), pages 627-667.
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