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An Experiment on a Multi-Period Beauty Contest Game

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  • Nobuyuki Hanaki
  • Yuta Takahashi

Abstract

We present and conduct a novel experiment on a multi-period beauty contest game. Leveraging the new multi-period feature, we propose a new methodology to test the forward-lookingness of expectations and explore how expectations are formed in our dynamic environment. By studying how expectations are revised over time, we provide new evidence for forward-looking expectation formation. Moreover, we uncover a new effect of strategic environment: only when the game exhibits strategic complementarity do participants use extrapolation and expect increasingly higher prices in the future. This finding implies that the mode of expectation formation is endogenous to the economic environment of the participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Nobuyuki Hanaki & Yuta Takahashi, 2023. "An Experiment on a Multi-Period Beauty Contest Game," ISER Discussion Paper 1213rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka, revised Dec 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1213rr
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    Cited by:

    1. Lustenhouwer, Joep & Salle, Isabelle, 2025. "Learning to be rational in the presence of news: A lab investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).

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