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World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with urban transition theory

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  • Philippe Bocquier

    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

Abstract

(english) This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of urban transition is used as an alternative hypothesis for projections. Alternative projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusions are that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania. _________________________________ (français) Cet article se propose d’examiner d’une manière critique les projections urbaines des Nations Unies. Les estimations des tendances récentes basées sur les données nationales sont évaluées, de même que la méthode de projection. La théorie de la transition urbaine est utilisée comme une alternative pour les projections. Des projections alternatives sont proposées sur la base d’un modèle polynomial et sont comparées à celle des NU, qui sont fondées sur un modèle linéaire. Les conclusions sont que les projections des NU pourraient surestimer de près d’un milliard la population urbaine en 2030, soit 19% en terme relatif. La surestimation serait particulièrement plus prononcée pour les pays en développement et pourrait excéder 30% en Afrique, en Inde et en Océanie.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bocquier, 2004. "World Urbanization Prospects : an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with urban transition theory," Working Papers DT/2004/08, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    • Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt200408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Mason-DCroz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Thomas, Timothy S., 2013. "Methodology," IFPRI book chapters, in: Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmore, Robert & Roy-Macauley, Harold (ed.), West African agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis, chapter 2, pages 37-52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Davis, James C. & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2003. "Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 98-125, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Adama Zerbo, 2006. "Marché du travail urbain et pauvreté en Afrique subsaharienne : un modèle d’analyse," Documents de travail 129, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV.
    2. Neil Brenner & Christian Schmid, 2014. "The ‘Urban Age’ in Question," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 731-755, May.
    3. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen & Prem Sangraula, 2007. "New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 667-701, December.
    4. Etebong PC, 2018. "Demography in Nigeria: Problems and Prospects," Biostatistics and Biometrics Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 5(1), pages 25-30, February.
    5. Charlotte Guénard & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2004. "Measuring inequalities: Do the surveys give the real picture? Study of two surveys in Cote d’Ivoire and Madagascar," Working Papers DT/2004/13, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation), revised Dec 2004.
    6. Philippe Bocquier & Sandra Brée, 2018. "A regional perspective on the economic determinants of urban transition in 19th-century France," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(50), pages 1535-1576.
    7. Yeboah, F. Kwame & Jayne, T.S., 2016. "Africa’S Evolving Employment Structure," Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security Policy Research Papers 259511, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Food Security (FSP).
    8. Headey, Derek & Bezemer, Dirk & Hazell, Peter B., 2008. "Agricultural exit problems: Causes and consequences," IFPRI discussion papers 802, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4459 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Headey, Derek D., 2014. "Land pressures, the evolution of farming systems, and development strategies in Africa: A synthesis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-17.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    urbanisation; projections; transition urbaine; modèle; pauvreté; environnement; pays en développement; pays développés; urban transition; model; poverty; environment; developing countries; developed countries.;
    All these keywords.

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