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Some Empirics of Socio-Economic Transitions. Estimating the Common Pattern

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  • Erich Gundlach
  • Martin Paldam

Abstract

The agricultural transition, the demographic transition and the democratic transition explain the development paths of the share of agriculture, the population growth rate, and the standard democracy indices. We demonstrate that two related estimation models give contradictory results when applied to data for these transitions over half a century and 150 countries. One model shows that the long-run change in the transition variable is caused by income. The other model shows that the relation between income and the transition variable is spurious. The contradicting results lead to reflections on appropriate approaches for identifying causality in development.

Suggested Citation

  • Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2012. "Some Empirics of Socio-Economic Transitions. Estimating the Common Pattern," DEGIT Conference Papers c017_025, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c017_025
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    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_17/C017_025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:53:y:1959:i:01:p:69-105_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Olsson, Ola & Hibbs, Douglas Jr., 2005. "Biogeography and long-run economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 909-938, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run growth; development; transitions; causality and spuriousness;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • P5 - Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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