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The Democratic Transition. A study of the causality between income and the Gastil democracy index

  • Erich Gundlach
  • Martin Paldam

    ()

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

The paper considers the transformation of the political system as countries pass through the Grand Transition from a poor developing country to a wealthy developed country. In the process most countries change from an authoritarian to a democratic political system. This is shown by using the Gastil democracy index from Freedom House. First, the basic pattern of correlations reveals that a good deal of the short- to medium-run causality appears to be from democracy to income. Then a set of extreme biogeographic instruments is used to demonstrate that the long-run causality is from income to democracy. The long-run result survives various robustness tests. We show how the Grand Transition view resolves the seeming contradiction between the long-run and the short- to medium-run effects.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/afn/wp/08/wp08_15.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2008-15.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 21 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2008-15
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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