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A farewell to critical junctures: Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy

Author

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  • Erich Gundlach
  • Martin Paldam

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

Abstract

We consider the empirical relevance of two opposing hypotheses on the causality between income and democracy: The Democratic Transition claims that rising incomes cause a transi¬ tion to democracy, whereas the Critical Junctures hypothesis denies this causal relation. Our empirical strategy is justified by Unified Growth Theory, which hypothe¬sizes that the present international income differences have roots in the prehistoric past. Thus, we use prehistoric measures of biogeography as instruments for modern income levels, and find a large long-run causal effect of income on the degree of democracy. This result rejects the Critical Junctures hypothesis, which is an important part of the Primacy of Institutions view.

Suggested Citation

  • Erich Gundlach & Martin Paldam, 2008. "A farewell to critical junctures: Sorting out long-run causality of income and democracy," Economics Working Papers 2008-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2008-04
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    JEL classification:

    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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