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Risk Analysis in Economics: An Application to University Finances

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Abstract

Although the theory of decision making under uncertainty has been extensively studied for a half century, applications to business applications are relatively rare. This study frames a systematic risk analysis and applies the technique to the finances of private colleges and universities. It begins by constructing budgets for colleges and universities and then analyzes the major economic factors affecting those budgets. It estimates the variability (or unpredictability) associated with each major external variable from historical data and from economic forecasts. The study finds that government-spending risks outweigh all other external stock market, interest rates, inflation, and wage trends. The paper concludes by suggesting that institutions consider the implications of exogenous uncertainties other than financial markets on their economic health. It considers the development of general "spending rules" (which would be extensions of conventional "endowment spending rules") to take into account all exogenous uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • William D. Nordhaus, 1989. "Risk Analysis in Economics: An Application to University Finances," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 924, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:924
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d09/d0924.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Herbert A. Simon, 1996. "The Sciences of the Artificial, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262691914, December.
    2. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    3. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1982. "Risk Perception in Psychology and Economics," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-552, September.
    5. George J. Stigler, 1961. "The Economics of Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 213-213.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert C. Merton, 1993. "Optimal Investment Strategies for University Endowment Funds," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 211-242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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