The 1980s Price Bubble on (Post) Impressionism
The Log Periodic Power Law is a model used to define and measure speculative bubbles. This model has proven useful to track bubbles and even predict crashes of liquid asset classes. Using this methodology coupled with properties of cointegration between stocks and art, the 1980s price bubble on Impressionism and Post-Impressionism is analyzed. It is shown formally that there was a bubble in this market between 1986 and 1989. However, when denominating the art index in JPY rather than in USD, no price bubble behaviour was found at all. This observation suggests that Japanese buyers never felt that they were riding a bubble. Despite popular beliefs, no evidence is found that Japanese buyers viewed art as a speculative vehicle instead of a more classic consumption good that was related to their own cultural heritage.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:||Nov 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.culturaleconomics.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
- Ginsburgh, Victor & Mei, Jianping & Moses, Michael, 2006. "The Computation of Prices Indices," Handbook of the Economics of Art and Culture, Elsevier.
- David W. Galenson & Bruce A. Weinberg, 2001. "Creating Modern Art: The Changing Careers of Painters in France from Impressionism to Cubism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1063-1071, September.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Tom Doan, . "POTESTRESIDS: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration on 1st stage residuals," Statistical Software Components RTS00248, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "POTEST: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Ouliaris-Hansen test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00247, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Leslie Singer & Gary Lynch, 1997. "Are Multiple Art Markets Rational?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 197-218, September.
- Ginsburgh, V. & Schwed, N., 1992.
"Price Trends for Old Masters' Drawings, 1980-1991,"
9209, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
- Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
- Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010. "Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
- William N. Goetzmann & Luc Renneboog & Christophe Spaenjers, 2009.
"Art and Money,"
NBER Working Papers
15502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goetzmann, W. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Spaenjers, C., 2010. "Art and Money," Discussion Paper 2010-08, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- William Goetzmann & Luc Renneboog & Christophe Spaenjers, 2009. "Art and Money," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2426, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2010.
- Madeleine DE LA BARRE & Sophie DOCCLO & Victor GINSBURGH, 1994. "Returns of Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary European Paintings 1962-1991," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 35, pages 143-181.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
- Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
- Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2001. "Art as an Investment: Risk, Return and Comovements in Major Painting Markets," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 093, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Bertrand Roehner & D. Sornette, 1999. "Analysis of the phenomenon of speculative trading in one of its basic manifestations: postage stamp bubbles," Papers cond-mat/9906435, arXiv.org.
- Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998.
"Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality,"
Purdue University Economics Working Papers
1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
- repec:dgr:kubtil:2010002 is not listed on IDEAS
- Renneboog, Luc & Ter Horst, Jenke & Zhang, Chendi, 2011. "Is ethical money financially smart? Nonfinancial attributes and money flows of socially responsible investment funds," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 562-588, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-03-2011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Juan Prieto-Rodriguez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.