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The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst

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  • K. Bastiaensen
  • P. Cauwels
  • D. Sornette
  • R. Woodard
  • W. -X. Zhou

Abstract

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).

Suggested Citation

  • K. Bastiaensen & P. Cauwels & D. Sornette & R. Woodard & W. -X. Zhou, 2009. "The Chinese Equity Bubble: Ready to Burst," Papers 0907.1827, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0907.1827
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/0907.1827
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    Cited by:

    1. Shu-Peng Chen & Ling-Yun He, 2013. "Bubble Formation and Heterogeneity of Traders: A Multi-Agent Perspective," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(3), pages 267-289, October.
    2. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier & Woodard, Ryan & Bastiaensen, Ken & Cauwels, Peter, 2010. "Bubble diagnosis and prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 149-162, June.
    3. Petr Geraskin & Dean Fantazzini, 2013. "Everything you always wanted to know about log-periodic power laws for bubble modeling but were afraid to ask," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 366-391, May.
    4. David S. Brée & Damien Challet & Pier Paolo Peirano, 2013. "Prediction accuracy and sloppiness of log-periodic functions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 275-280, January.
    5. Didier Sornette & Peter Cauwels & Georgi Smilyanov, 2017. "Can We Use Volatility to Diagnose Financial Bubbles? Lessons from 40 Historical Bubbles," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-27, Swiss Finance Institute.

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