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Graphical identification of TAR models

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  • Bermejo Mancera, Miguel Ángel
  • Peña, Daniel
  • Sánchez, Ismael

Abstract

This paper proposes an automatic procedure to identify Threshold Autoregressive models and specify the threshold values. The proposed procedure is based on recursive estimation of arranged autoregression. The main advantage of the proposed procedure over its competitors is that the threshold values are automatically detected. The performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated using simulations and real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Bermejo Mancera, Miguel Ángel & Peña, Daniel & Sánchez, Ismael, 2009. "Graphical identification of TAR models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws097723, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws097723
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maravall, Agustin, 1983. "An Application of Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 66-74, January.
    2. Bruce Hansen, 1999. "Testing for Linearity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-576, December.
    3. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
    4. repec:bla:jecsur:v:13:y:1999:i:5:p:551-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    6. Pena, Daniel & Rodriguez, Julio, 2005. "Detecting nonlinearity in time series by model selection criteria," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 731-748.
    7. A. I. McLeod & W. K. Li, 1983. "Diagnostic Checking Arma Time Series Models Using Squared‐Residual Autocorrelations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, July.
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