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The Economic Returns to Citizenship: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

Author

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  • Jens Hainmueller
  • David Laitin

Abstract

Citizenship is widely summarized as producing a "naturalization premium" for immigrants, but naturalization is highly selected on language, residence, employment, and motivation. We provide a quantitative meta-analysis of citizenship effects on immigrant earnings, synthesizing 63 preferred estimates from 31 studies. Identification strategy explains more between-estimate heterogeneity than citizenship regime, destination country, effect measurement window, outcome data source, earnings-sample basis, or treatment estimand. A multilevel random-effects model yields a pooled earnings premium of 9.6% (95% CI 5.0 to 14.5), broadly consistent with the study-country-collapsed estimate of 11.2% (95% CI 6.1 to 16.5). This average masks a sharp identification-strategy gradient: a randomized encouragement design implies a precisely estimated near-zero effect of 0.4% (95% CI -0.9 to 1.7); the regression-discontinuity study yields 11.3% (95% CI 5.2 to 17.8); reform-based and panel within-person estimates are positive on average but statistically indistinguishable from zero; observational instrumental-variable estimates average 39.9% (95% CI 12.6 to 73.9). Excluding observational instrumental-variable estimates reduces the pooled premium to 5.8% (95% CI 3.6 to 8.1). A within-study diagnostic from the randomized trial shows the same pattern: experimental estimates are near zero, while an observational panel comparison that ignores randomization and uses self-selected citizenship uptake implies a 9.6% gain (95% CI 3.6 to 16.0) four years after the lottery. The published citizenship premium is positive, but its magnitude and causal interpretation are highly sensitive to research design.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens Hainmueller & David Laitin, 2026. "The Economic Returns to Citizenship: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26142, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26142
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law

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